Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pam who wrote (42831)	1/20/2009 5:04:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

Pam, You alerted me to this issue several weeks ago with some very good reasoning - thank you for that. I agree that WFR earnings and revenue outlook will almost certainly be coming down further in the near future. How far, of course, is always the question. And there is "room" for WFR price to not get hit too hard when these estimates do come down assuming they do not go through the floor. From what I understand is they have lots of cash and they are a very big player in their sector. More like an INTC as opposed to a MTSN(my apologies to MTSN;-). That should help them get through this coming nasty period. Don

To: Pam who wrote (42831)	1/22/2009 4:50:56 PM
From: PChips	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

Consensus Rev/EPS estimates (about 20 analysts) for 1Q09 and FY09 on Yahoo are at 402MM/$0.57 and 1.81B/$2.41 respectively. These are very optimistic estimates and will have to come down rather dramatically over next several months. Combination of increased Supply and reduced Demand will result in a complete loss of pricing power and a severe GM compression that will push estimates lower. wfr: i have read all your posts on wfr and this was an excellent call! this excerpt from their latest report confirms what you have been saying all along! thnx, pc. First Quarter 2009 Outlook "End market weakness and low order visibility across both semiconductor and solar applications continues in the first quarter, as reduced consumer spending, limited access to credit and other results of the macroeconomic environment weigh on both markets," continued Turner. "This environment is exacerbated by continued inventory reductions at semiconductor customers, the combination of which is resulting in a significant sequential reduction in semiconductor wafer demand which is, in turn, leading to the diversion of some polysilicon output from semiconductor to solar markets. This is having the effect of reducing pricing for polysilicon and wafers in the solar market. The unusually low levels of visibility that many of our customers have in the current environment reduces our ability to provide meaningful quarterly, annual or long term guidance at this time. Our current view of the markets we serve indicates that first quarter 2009 revenue could decline by as much as 50% from the fourth quarter of 2008. The reduced pricing and significantly lower factory utilization assumed in this view, the latter of which would result in significant underutilization charges, could result in gross margins declining to the 20 percent range."