Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (152)	1/25/2009 8:23:13 AM
From: joefromspringfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3605

Math Thanks for correcting that error. He should have said that Brinker has lost money in 2 of his 3 portfolios over the last 5 years. 5 years ended 12-31-2008 for all Model Portfolios: Portfolio I: -7% Portfolio II: -5% Portfolio III: 6% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)

To: Math Junkie who wrote (152)	1/25/2009 10:23:37 AM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3605

Math Junkie, What you left out is how much money Brinker's model portfolios have lost since the all-time-high in October, 2007. Model Portfolio I: October 2007: ATH = $302,561 NOW = $171,153 Model Portfolio II: October 2007: ATH = $241,994 NOW = $143,294 Model Portfolio III: October 2007: ATH = $219,263 NOW = $162,563 .

To: Math Junkie who wrote (152)	1/25/2009 8:32:44 PM
From: BFree	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

While not questioning your figures, they are certainly misleading. As I am sure you recall Bob Brinker's portfolios were heavy into techology in 99 and 99 was the best year for tech with the Nasdaq nearly doubling. Would you please give the figures from Jan 1 2000 to date? I recall several of Brinker's loyalists on the net taking a swipe at another newsletter writer for having had outsized gains many years ago that skewed a performance. What is strikingly clear is that Bob Brinker cannot predict equity markets. Like any investor he can guess right or guess wrong. He can overload in a sector as he did in 99 and be rewarded. He can hang on to stocks in that sector like Vod and MSFT and be hurt. It was so funny that he would continually brag that he could overweight technology himself because he understood it so well. (How'd that go with the QQQs) He can be bearish and be right or wrong. He can be bullish and be right or wrong. He can predict huge gains and throw thirty percent of a portfolio at a narrow index and then hold it forever. When pruchased in Oct. 2000 with a foolhardy act immediately special bulletin the QQQs were around 80.00. He has never closed out that trade and now they are about 28.00, but not counted in performance numbers. So Bob Brinker has called for a bear market and went to all cash one time in his life and was wrong. The marekt went up 1/3 before he returned to a fully invested postion. Other than that he has been a perma bull for his career with a 3 year detour as a fast talking, "have it both ways" type. "I am not bearish" when making a move to take 60% out of equities--later became "When we became bearish" was accompanied by "ACT IMMEDIATELY" to use up to half of those funds to buy QQQs that are now buried but as you are well aware have never been closed out. In 2007 Bob Brinker, claimed that the bear market ended in June 2006, with no explanation. He has been a raging bull ever since and has remained fully invested and yelling "BUY" at several points all the way down, watching about a 50% loss in the index. Now if you claim that is a record that you want to pay somebody for, there is no problem. But most would find it of dubious value I should think. What we now know Brinker is a guesser who has no special ability to predict bear markets. The difference is that he has a radio show and a gift of gab that has a continual stream of new (and a few older folks that look for a reason to believe the guy) rather gullible investors wanting to think Bob is as intelligent and as often correct as his rhetoric. Does that make him evil incarnate? No, He is selling a product that he knows is not as good as claimed. Infomercials abound where people are selling strategies or products that are not as good as they claim. They are products that need to be "sold", they are not products that are "bought". Vitamins, black paint spray to cure baldness, gold schemes, heating oil futures, real estate strategies. All of these lead you to believe that they have something you really need. The hype is almost always better than the reality. So it seems with marketiming newsletters. Are all those people evil? No, that is too strong. Do they really believe what they claim they can do for the consumer of their product? Doubtful. Do they embellish triumphs and hide defeats? Of course. If you look at marketimers as some important adjucnt to prudent investing as Professor Malkeil warned against while speaking with Bob Brinker himself, then you likely are a candidate for the infomercial products that are too good to be true. If this last act of Brinker's, bullish all the way down in this bear market and yelling on his program that all that was holding the market back was high oil prices, isn't eye opening; nothing will be.