Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pam who wrote (43114)	1/29/2009 10:26:58 PM
From: Return to Sender	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95572

>When we have a rally with 9:1 breadth on the upside on extremely heavy volume (3x or more) we will have a bottom in place for sure. I don't think, we have ever emerged from a significant downturn without such a rally!< You will not see that kind of volume coming off the bottom. The bottom will come after sellers have been exhausted. At the same time buyers will be even more nervous than I am now. We will see a 9:1 upside day. We will have higher than average volume but what you are describing is the kind of volume seen during capitulation instead of at market bottoms. I just looked at weekly charts for LRCX and WFR and they both look awful. Not a single up week on higher than average volume despite the fact they are still above bottoms formed a while back. Where the danger lies is in believing these stocks will move independent of the SMH/SOX. This sector looks a whole lot better than the financial sector. Note the general trend is lower volume but the up weeks are showing higher volume. Be careful to only short the rallies with small positions. I have seen more than one great trader flame out by stubbornly citing poor fundamentals while shorting positions way too big to manage when the market moved against them. Short covering will be a big part of the initial rally off the next long term bottom. That rally will not have the kind of volume you expect. Take a look at the ten year monthly on the Industrials: Note that the bottom in October 2002 came on above average but not spectacular volume: RtS

To: Pam who wrote (43114)	1/30/2009 12:34:07 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Pam, Thank you for clarifying your views for those of us on this thread. I was quite certain that you were often short by the approach you take in responding to others (and in my opinion, it often is bordering on condescension). Please understand that I don't view shorting as wrong or evil. Quite the opposite...unless its naked shorting...which is another topic all together. Anyway, maybe my reaction to your posts have been on the hostile side of things because when I read some of the stuff you put out... like this: we may have a bottom in place but we could revisit it or even go lower ...it strikes me as covering every base and basically saying nothing to those of us who are interested in your opinion. I say...whats the point of saying we may go up or we may go down or we may stay flat? All I want to say when I read that is: DUH. I'll try to be more civil and careful in future posts to you, since I now have a little better appreciation of your current viewpoint. If you'll accept a little more criticism from me, I would suggest that you don't end posts with what are clearly obvious statements, as though you think the person you are responding to can't grasp the concept! For example, recently I mentioned Price to Sales in one of my posts and your response concluded with "P/S ratio by itself means nothing without looking at other things." Once again, my response becomes: DUH. I hope this is read in the proper light and not viewed as being too negative. fwiw...my 2 cents...etc.... TO