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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (100940)	2/3/2009 5:24:04 PM
From: gregor_us	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Thanks for the feedback. There is little doubt the world is in an industrial depression. Whether this advances to become a more classical, generalized world depression with misery just about everywhere is still a question. Though for some, it's less of a question. What I know is that we are moving along quickly. Someone recently said it's like were are telescoping the timeframe. I think we may have compacted the years 1929-1933 in to less than a year. So, this means that the second the combined fiscal and monetary stimulus catches fire, the turn could be shocking. That said I remain sympathetic to the depression thesis. But a depression thesis will not necessarily make USTs rise. I could see a wild situation where the nominal yield rises on the 30 Yr to 4.25%, even as deflation goes to minus -2.00%, for a little while at least. I've been having a good discussion with a senior bond guy in NY, about all these issues. He agrees that even if Americans start to save--even at a "high" rate--it will in the aggregate not mean that any large pile of cash starts to lay up at the banks. After personal consumption and debt service Americans can save every penny. It just won't be that many pennies. Best, G