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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33437)	2/4/2009 7:34:31 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78688

I'm a holder of DIS and am considering adding here. Imo, the strength of Disney is now its ESPN network. It's growing worldwide, and it's one of the few places where advertisers can pick up a broad geographic in one place (men - young, middle, older.) DIS falls within my metrics for a value stock. Some people believe that the key to evaluating media stocks is free cash flow. I'll use that metric for discussion here, although it's not one I have been using in my own evaluation of DIS. I see that free cash flow is $3.9B: corporate.disney.go.com SI shows 1.85B shares out. si.advfn.com^DIS That makes free cash flow per share at about $2.10 sh. With DIS roughly $19/sh, a buyer of the stock now gets a free cash flow yield of about 11.5%. That looks decent enough to me to be a holder of the stock. Of course, if parts of the business do disintegrate - the cruise ships/theme parks/others, free cash flow dollars disappear and the stock won't seem like an attractive buy on that metric. I have a few shares bought at much higher prices than currently. Maybe I will average down with a small share buy now.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33437)	2/23/2009 7:36:06 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78688

Adding just a few shares of PM today. si.advfn.com

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33437)	2/24/2009 12:32:14 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78688

re CAT E_K_S or my spider sense were right, it's now trading in the mid twenties. I am not sure i want to own this one any more. Construction and mining equipment has a long life and with respect to mining we are off a long boom so this business could shrink quite dramatically well into 2010. So the 40B$ revenue forecast may prove to be optimistic :-(. There are pension issues and a financing arm as well, enough fodder for the shorts. Di anyone follow into AAUK? I bought a few. Earnings are well down and they cut the dividend to zero. Still they do look like a survivor - their debt per this years numbers is about 2x EBITDA (1x EBITDA per Y2008 earnings). Not great but not even close to distressed either. Companies like AAUk need to recover and then expand again before companies like CAT prosper. This is the same thesis I have than with the drillers.