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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33439)	2/5/2009 12:22:43 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78688

re DIS - agree on FCF yield being important, I also look at EBITDA/EV for a debt adjusted metric. I think DIS is somewhat damaged (what company isn't right now) but not broken. I do own some VIA.b which has some almost unbelievable metrics - FCF exceeding 15% EV/ EBITDA about 5. of course on the hairy side we do have ratings problems and Redstone to deal with. I also like SNI (earnings tomorrow, so I may eat crow tomorrow). I'll lowball DIS here in the 18.XX$ range and see what I get.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33439)	2/5/2009 12:09:11 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78688

I took a look at DIS. Not much to like. ROE sucks - and that's BEFORE accounting for debt. Debt is high. Margins falling. Earnings/EV is low compared to other similar large companies with moats (PEP, JNJ). It is trading close to book value, but then most of the book is goodwill and goes poof. Of course, last quarter was tough for DIS as other companies, so it's not really fair to value the company based on the numbers from the Q, but I don't see much reason to buy now.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33439)	2/5/2009 11:48:04 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78688

DIS, SE, NSRGY DIS - I bought some today for 18.26$ both in my IRA and my taxable account. I content that DVD sales are going to taper off but I do think that an emerging technology - 3D movies may pull the movie industry out of a slump. It may also be a big boost for the TV industry when the home theater version comes out. Both hardware and content provider will benefit. I also got a limit order hit with SE (14.01$) and I am surprised by the bounce back. i think about selling for a profit tomorrow. Earnings were indeed weaker than expected although I do think that the dividend is safe for now. NSRGY at 32.3$ is my third add for this stock.