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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43343)	2/10/2009 10:22:47 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

AMAT P/S yo-yo: 1994 P/S range: 2.6-1.6 1995 P/S range: 3.0-0.9 1995 hi to 1996 lo: 3.0 to 0.9 1997 hi to 1998 lo: 4.4 to 2.2 2000 hi to 2002 lo: 8.9 to 3.6 2003 hi to 2005 lo: 9.2 to 3.0 2007 hi to 2008 lo: 3.2 to 1.3 8/07 hi: $22.5 stock X 1.41B shares/9.89B$ TTM sales = 3.2 11/08 lo: $7.80 stock X 1.33B shares/8.13B$ TTM sales = 1.3 today: $9.68 stock X 1.33B shares/7.36B$ TTM sales = 1.7 P/S So, the valuation range, from 8/07 to 11/08, has returned to where it was in the mid-1990s. IMO, the normal P/S range for AMAT is 2-5, with occasional insane spikes down to 1 and up to 9. For 2009: Sales: AMAT will have 2.33B$ sales for the first half (1.33B$ reported 1Q + 1B$ 2Q guidance). Let's assume 3Q matches 2Q, and 4Q shows a modest rebound to 1.4B$, giving a yearly total of about $4.7B. FY2003 had sales of 4.5B$ Shares: That's easy to predict: 1.33B, same as now. There will be no share repurchases. No employee stock options will be exercised, as they are all underwater.