Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LK2 who wrote (1332)	10/24/1997 3:25:00 PM
From: Leo Mitkievicz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

<OFF TOPIC - LK - edits> Larry If the post is at all lengthy, I open WordPerfect and do the composition there. Spell-checker is active as I type. Then a simple cut-and-paste puts it into the respond window on SI. Advantage also that transfer of bold and italic is automatic without fiddling with those < > and </ > comands. Otherwise I just sit there with a big fat dictionary balanced on my knee and cuss my spelling a lot. Leo

To: LK2 who wrote (1332)	10/24/1997 3:43:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Larry, "Was there any way to get out early, or even to get out late, based on any fundamental warning signs?" Don't mean to repeat myself too much, but I'm NOT a short term trader. I had bad experiences with short term trading a long time ago, and finally learned that watching my account go up and down like a yoyo wasn't fun. Having said that, the situation that Seagate finds itself in was vaguely predictable, although the exact timing was not. Last January, shortly after their earnings report, I said on the Seagate thread that I thought that they would begin to have problems sometime over the summer, as it was apparent that more players were getting into the high end. However, I did not think then that the problems would be quite as severe as they apparently are now--I predicted, if I recall correctly, that about 40 or slightly below that would be the downside risk, with more if there was a general tech correction (although I did get the mid-high 50s right as a prediction for the top). There will probably be more selling in SEG over the next month, as everyone who bought this year has losses, and will probably be doing some tax selling over the next 4-6 weeks. That will possibly be countered by the company buying, as well as some new buyers, but I would guess that the low will happen in that time frame, unless we get some additional bad news in January. But at some point, it will be a raging buy, IMO. It seems to me that the correction in WDC from the 50s was probable, although I suspect that this may be it for them, if they can successfully make the MR transition, which it "feels" likely to me that they will do. If I weren't so heavy into drives already, I would buy them today (at 33), as well as QNTM, even though both could go a little lower. The correction in QNTM hasn't been so bad so far. A move from 43 to 35 is only to be expected in these stocks. I think 35 may hold, although if the overall market keeps correcting, all bets are off. As far as the head and platter suppliers are concerned, there is overcapacity in the platter business. We have said that for months now. There could easily be oversupply in the head business next year as more MR supply comes on-line. The consolidation among drive vendors has made the component business a more difficult one. The correction among these stocks was completely predictable, even with their low PEs. That at least is my outlook, which I think largely repeats things I have been writing on these threads for months now. Sam