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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: forceOfHabit who wrote (101211)2/12/2009 12:00:28 PM
From: SG  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
You might like Tainters "The collapse of civilizations", which I'm reading. As I started reading, it occurred to me that, over time, every complex society has collapsed.

SG



To: forceOfHabit who wrote (101211)2/12/2009 12:45:41 PM
From: Hawkmoon1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I'm just a poor dumb trader. Too much economics makes my head spin and reminds me of arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

I know how you feel.. though, I think you do yourself a disservice.

My primary focus was on the comment he made regarding CDS's and the other "innovative" financial products he referred to:

Lesson 3: Prevention. We got into this mess because financial development advanced way ahead of not only regulators and government officials, but the actors in financial markets themselves, including the geniuses who created the innovative financial products that we have now come to know (and fear) by their acronyms – CDOs, MBSs, CMOs, and the greatest villain of all, CDSs!

Preventing the next debacle, however, requires careful thinking. Imposing regulations and controls that would return the financial system to its 1960s structure would be a major mistake. The challenge is to identify where things went very wrong and plug the deep holes that exist while preserving the enormous potential that the securitisation of financial assets has for enhancing efficiency and standards of living worldwide. A starting point is to recognise that government made two huge mistakes in (a) directing regulators to ignore products like CDSs, by pretending that simply by an act of law they could be declared not to be standard securities or a form of gambling (both of which they were!), and (b) instituting and enlarging the implicit government guarantee backing the fast expansion of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Had the wisdom of people like Mrs. Brooksley Born prevailed in the late 1990s, the CDS market would have been at least supervised, if not regulated. This alone would have saved us enormous pain today, because the jump from the mid-billions problem that sub-prime mortgages were to the mid-trillions debacle we are suffering occurred largely due to the casino-like setup in which AIG and other financial companies conducted the CDS business.


I still hold to the view, until shown the error of my thinking, that the lack of regulation in the CDS markets are the primary reason we're not seeing much lending. The existing bond markets are under a hellish assault leading us further down the path of even greater debt default and deflation.. And CDS's are certainly a major percentage of the "fuel" that is creating that blaze of destruction.

Hawk



To: forceOfHabit who wrote (101211)2/13/2009 12:19:33 AM
From: Malyshek  Respond to of 110194
 
Which were the five most powerful countries and their currencies in 1900, if you have it handy? Thanks.