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Biotech / Medical : QDEL - Quidel more quick diagnosis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: R. Jaynes who wrote (1209)	10/24/1997 1:58:00 PM
From: Ambrym Man	Respond to of 1693

Thanks for your response, that is good information. I would think that there is a big enough market for that first test, I am not in the medical proffession so I really have no idea. To change the subject, does anyone understand what the arrangement is between Bayer and QDEL. Evidently Bayer is going through the approval process for a device that incorporates some QDEL technology. Is it a licensing agreement or does Quidel provide a component, and what does the device test for ?.

To: R. Jaynes who wrote (1209)	10/24/1997 5:00:00 PM
From: Ambrym Man	Respond to of 1693

Rick, My neigbour just had his h-pylori eradicated. He told me last night that as it was suspected that it was caused by oral-to-oral contact or by close living conditions, his girlfriend is being tested, because they do not want to pass it back and forth. Something to think about. Sorry I was a bit abrupt in my first response to you. But I was busy trying to get my boss transferred to Boeing. He could get those 747's off the ground to-morrow. I would not want to fly in one of them though. Your post was certainly cautionary. But in this one, as Mike pointed out, the analysts seem to know their stuff, have been more or less on the mark and Quidel has tracked right with them. Thanks again for the input.

To: R. Jaynes who wrote (1209)	10/24/1997 5:48:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 1693

RJ - Re:<<But what I found most interesting, with regard to Quidel, is that after someone has tested positive for h. pylori, if that person needs to be tested again for h. pylori, you cannot do a blood test (such as Quidel's) because once you have the bacteruim the body produces antibodies and they will stay in your blood forever, and a blood test for h. pylori will therefore always be positive.>> Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how sensitive the test is, and how the bacteria excites the immune system. The immune system does eventually forget about past infections, especially if they weren't severe to begin with. That is why booster vaccines are needed for some illnesses. Having said that, it is almost certain that the antibody test wouldn't be good for at least several years. Clark

To: R. Jaynes who wrote (1209)	10/24/1997 7:06:00 PM
From: Mike Relyea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1693

R, You said, "My question is, is this perhaps not quite the high volume test and money maker for us we have been hopping it will be? True, there are an awful lot of people who could benefit from the test but is Quidel's revenue from the test limited to once per patient? Any other comments?" I suggest you check out the following sites for information on H. pylori: Helicobacter Foundation helico.com The Canadian H. pylori Info Site, canadianhp.com PharmInfo Net H. pylori News, pharminfo.com From the Helicobacter Foundation, Diagnosis of H.pylori page: "Antibody tests do not work well after you have been treated since antibodies decline slowly and may take 6-24 months to return to normal after H. pylori has been killed." Since the cure rate for H. pylori is so high, most patients who test positive for the bug with an antibodies test such as Quidel's are cured following treatment. Therefore, the follow up "test" is the smile on the patient's face. Some physicians may confirm eradication by using a breath test or endoscopy, but I doubt most would, since these tests are expensive, and if the patient doesn't have any more problems, I don't think most physicians would bother. In any event, the most likely initial test a general practitioner will uses to test for H. pylori will be the rapid antibody test, such as Quidel's, since it's accurate, fast and inexpensive. If for some reason the patient still had ulcer symptoms following treatment, the physician probably would want to do an endoscopy, not only to verify the presence of an ulcer but also obtain biopsy samples to test for cancer. The samples could also be used to check if H. pylori is still present. Mike

To: R. Jaynes who wrote (1209)	10/27/1997 11:48:00 AM
From: Ambrym Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1693

Rick and ALL, Rick you said > My question is, is this perhaps not quite the high volume test and money maker for us we have been hoping----< Below is my strawhorse stab at a market anlysis. Anyone on this thread is welcome to change the numbers. The government is going to launch a national campaign. I will assume that their study about testing the whole population will not come to anything, but the awareness campaign is real. We have a precedent for this, some years back the government had a campaign about swine fever. I have not researched it yet. Based on that campaign, we should be able to determine what percentage of the population responded. Keep in mind we have the internet & CNN now, we did not then. OK here goes, all numbers are arguable. First year of campaign. Population of the USA. 260,000,000 15% of public responds 39,000,000 Quidel gets 20% market share. 7,800,000 Guess at revenue per kit to QDEL $6 (Distributers get $13 per kit.) Revenues to QDEL from market share $46,800,000 Profits to QDEL (35,100,000 X.50) $23,400,000 Addition to earnings per share ($23,400,000/23,000,000) $1.17