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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (32833)	2/16/2009 4:55:36 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Re: "According to estimates. Estimating is easy, getting it right, not so much." Correct. Of course we won't know what their growth will prove to be until it posts. (However... one thing that we apparently know now --- because it's posted in near-real time --- is the HUGE INCREASE in Bank Lending that has just transpired in China... $237 billion (1.62 trillion yuan) in new loans in January, up a whopping 101% year-over-year... about equal to one-third of all the loans issued in 2008.) Re: "And perhaps more importantly, those estimates show a .3% difference in growth rate for one quarter." Go back and read that one again. They estimate an EXPANSION of 6.6% in second quarter 2009, (after slowing down to 6.3% in the first quarter) then CONTINUED EXPANSION until it AVERAGES "7.2% for the full year". It would be foolish to assume (only one month after a government stimulus program had been announced) even that: A) all the money was in the economy yet, or B) that the full stimulus effect would have been realized yet. That ain't realistic, economies don't turn on a dime. What slight increase in the growth rate they've already posted is unlikely to be the end of it... (and we in the West would be deliriously screaming from the rooftops if we could show a 0.3% annualized GNP growth rate increase in ONE MONTH. <GGG> If the economists projections are realized (6.3% increasing to 7.2% that would be almost a full percentage point increase --- in the teeth of a global collapse that would be truly EXTRAORDINARY.) But... the Chinese stimulus is vastly larger then the American one (measured as a percentage of national product).