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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (42603)	2/17/2009 6:42:58 PM
From: octavian	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Skeeter Bug said: <<1. why did you need brinker to make money during the mid 90s? i think you have confused association with causation.>> --When I first started thinking about investing in the stock market in 1992, I started reading financial publications and watching people like Jim Rogers on CNBC. Most of the supposed experts were pretty bearish and said the market was "overvalued." Being a novice, I had to wonder if I would be getting involved at just the wrong time. Brinker was the MAIN reason (not the only one) that I finally decided to take the plunge. I went in a little at a time, and started a 401K (actually, I had already started it, but I made it all stocks). All the while, I kept reading, listening and learning. After a year or so, Brinker convinced me to max out my 401K. I kept hearing a lot of bearishness, but Brinker (among a few others) helped convince me to stay in the market--even though I KNEW this kind of parabolic rise had to come to a bad end. I actually started cutting back in late 1999--against Brinker's advice. Then I cut back a lot more after he gave his sell signal. I didn't sell only because of Brinker. As I said, I knew the bull had to end and was trying not to wait too long. <<2. i have no idea what fleckenstein was saying in 1993. can you cite some data that shows he was bearish in the market since 1993?>> --I don't know what he was saying in 1993. I just know he has been a permabear as long as I've known of him. <<4. i don't have a "man." i evaluate what all people say and compare it with the data points i observe and my understanding of human behavior. i gather information and reach my own conclusions.>> --That's EXACTLY what I do! One other point I neglected to make earlier, when you asked me how I had done since 1998 and whether I had kept up with inflation. I told you I was up 7% since the bottom in 2002. What I neglected to mention is that I am up 7% NET of all spending!!! I have been taking an average of 2.5% to 3% out of my portfolio every year, and in addition to that I bought a car in 2003. So I have actually done a lot better than the 7% figure would indicate.