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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (17846)	2/21/2009 4:24:32 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

Yeah, the notional got reduced 5% or so in June 2008, but it's a long way to zero.

To: maceng2 who wrote (17846)	2/23/2009 2:52:22 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

"Are there signs that overall derivative exposure is being reduced? Or are we still marching strongly onwards to ever higher highs as implied by those bar graphs into 2009/10 ???" I looked at the data a while ago when it came out, and there were some signs of saturation or minor (5%) reduction. However, somehow this is not present on Bart's chart. The latest point of BIS report is 6/08, of course. The signs are that if there was any reduction, it was minor, or that derivatives keep powering along with all the Fed's liquidity. The market value is especially troubling. But you would expect that as volatility of all markets rises; which is why we've seen so many counterparty failures. Message 25434234 Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall. Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king's horses and all the king's men Couldn't put Humpty together again. The Fed's major liquidity effort is an attempt to put Humpty together again. It may work, at this scale, for a little while, but not much longer . Gulp!

To: maceng2 who wrote (17846)	2/23/2009 3:14:51 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71463

The key question that I keep asking myself and others: Are there any signs "they" (the governments, the financial industry, etc.) are attempting to "solve" this problem? Yes and no. More No than Yes, as of 6/2008. Yes, as we are seeing more and more attempts from the government to regulate this. No, because these huge liquidity injections from the Fed and the treasury is nothing more than trying to put Humpty together again. It will lead to GROWTH and subsequent SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE. Trillions are required because the bubble is already huge. I am surprised to see that huge counterparty failures and takeovers did not reduce the notional value by cancelling some contracts.