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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (26911)	10/25/1997 1:55:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

Hi Mohan--using my newest indicator, I'd say that we are close to a bottom:) What is this new indicator, you ask?? Well I log on this am and find 5 new messages on the ideas thread and 7 on the tech stock options thread and 57 on the Big K thread-- since I logged off yesterday afternoon. In fact yesterday there were well over 200 messages on the Big K thread--a record, I think. I have noticed that when the ratio gets lop-sided this way it suggests a bottom and when it goes the other direction -- it's probably a top. Two weeks ago the ideas thread and to a lesser extent the options thread were absolutely buzzing with activity and optimism. The final confirming indicator is when these two, normally bullish threads, also become somewnat bearish in tone and suggest caution--then we are there. EPC ratios are showing some incredibly high put buying The bull/bear ratio on SI shows incredibly low mumber of bulls--another week or two of weakness and this should be perfectly positioned. I'd say that we are close to a major bottom--though I'd love to see the market break 7600 and get down to about 7400. It'll improve sentiment readings even further and yet not cause too much technical damage. What was interesting in terms of last week's action was that the selling was not broad-based and some sectors held up very well. In real bear-markets -- the selling is broad-based and no sector gets spared. Let's see if this happens this coming week. Now you emphasize fundamentals when it comes to investing and what I need some guidance on, is how severe this impact of the Asian crisis really is in terms of corporate profitability in the US.My understanding is -- first, that Asia represents a relatively small percentage of the business of US corporations and second, that only certain companies within certain sectors are really impacted to any extent. If this is accurate, surely what we will see is a rotation of funds to the sectors that are relatively immune to the Asian economic woes. In fact, overall the devaluation of the currencies in those regions should lower the cost of imports to the US and help to keep inflation in check resulting in lower interest rates--quite apart from the flight to safety and the slow-down in some sectors of the US economy. If you agree on the above rationale, what are your thoughts about sectors that are likely to benefit from the rotation of funds? BTW, my comments on the ratio of postings on the different threads are only half tongue in cheek Thanks for the thoughts on the bio-techs--I agree that it is a good sector to put some money into. Have a good weekend