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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (5254)	2/24/2009 8:22:31 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

Actually, Brumar, in the tech world that is exactly how things work. It's hard to believe that oil and coal can be put out of business by new, unproven-at-scale tech like solar or other renewables, especially since renewables cost more than oil and coal right now. I can understand your doubt. However, I've seen so many many examples of exactly this kind of thing in my life that I have to say I think it is ultimately inevitable that the world will move away from oil. Many people right now are saying that the way it will happen is that the commodity will become so expensive through scarcity that renewables will become cost competitive, will flourish, and eventually we'll move away from oil. I think that will happen in part, but I think renewable tech will relentlessly get better as well, which will mean oil scarcity won't be necessary to cause a substitution of energy consumption away from oil and towards renewables. The only catch to the above is I can't put a timeline on it. I think it will be decades in the making and that we are right at this moment at the ground floor of that trend. I will say though that the probability is very high it will happen in my lifetime. Before I die, I will be able to say that the US only gets a minority of their energy supply from oil and coal, with the majority coming from things we consider renewables today. I plan to profit from this trend and have already made sizeable investments for the long term in rewewables. If I'm right, I will leave behind enough money that my grandkids will never have to work after I die.