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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Defrocked who wrote (3029)	10/24/1997 11:46:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Very interesting post. It can probably be condensed into this: You are concerned that the next crash or bear market may be upon us. I also get concerned when everyone is margined or out of money to buy more stocks at lower prices. Many of your other points should not be dismissed without thought, as well. However, the recent market action feels like a panic, which is usually my favorite time to purchase stocks. Bearishness has increased significantly (just look at the SI Bull-Bear Survey), which also usually bodes well for the stock market. Unfortunately, my current equity holding is currently quite a bit over my target asset allocation, so I can not comfortably make additional purchases. (I guess this just typifies one of your concerns!) Notwithstanding the above, I'm going to generally maintain my equity holdings over the near term (i.e., next several months). I may redistribute slightly among stocks or mutual funds, trying to move into the areas that have been beaten down the worst. RE: "I cannot explain today's market activity or such low current values for AMAT,CPQ,INTC" Historically, I don't believe that a P/E of 21 for INTC is associated with a "low current value." RE: "(6) Credit swap spreads have reportedly expanded by 50 to 75 bps. or more during the last 2 weeks again illustrating a flight to quality." I don't know what this means or why it is important. If you have the time to enlighten me it would be appreciated. Best wishes, I2

To: Defrocked who wrote (3029)	10/25/1997 4:03:00 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Well said. I find it interesting that Names such as EGLS are now trading at the same price as I paid during the July 96 bottom. Instead of being the out of favor step daughter they were then, with the broader market tone positive, now it appears that both the semi-equips and to some extent all the techs are in a negative trend along with the non tech large cap issues. A recipe for a nice potential bottom in the making. Could be rewarding for those able to step in front of the oncomming train at the right moment, but I don't think that moment is now.

To: Defrocked who wrote (3029)	10/25/1997 4:55:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Defrocked, Good post!!! You will feel right at home over on the Big Kahuna thread... we have been grappling with many if not all the things you suggest in your post. BTW, my indicators at this point show weakness for next week and especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. And we may be as low as 7,325 by the close on Tuesday. If that doesn't hold, THEN you will get your 1,000 point sell-off... Regards, and come on over and try us, you will like us! Bill

To: Defrocked who wrote (3029)	10/25/1997 4:55:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Defrocked, thanks for your thoughtful post. I also do not like what I see. IMO markets getting rattled around the world is not a good sign. I successfully had been playing the margin game for the last 3 or so years but recently cleaned up all margins and created a fair amount of cash. I have not been sensitive to SI folks and their margin (long) holdings, and agree this could be dangerous until the economic uncertainty is out of the global markets. I also am a long term investor and am holding all my long positions, i.e. companies that I have owned for years and IMO will weather any economic down turn, but have shorted SPY to dampen any short-term down turn effects on my portfolio. There are some interesting times ahead and we will learn more how the current global economy works. Joan