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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9537)	10/25/1997 12:43:00 AM
From: Mike Hancock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I'm sorry Cary, Can you explain further our your last paragraph?... <<I believe it is a disservice to other thread members to refer to my methodology and behavior withoutexplaining that my "BLOOD" prices for AMAT ranged from approximately 1/2 to 1/3 of the current price and they did not assume any level of near term future sales and earnings.>> Thanks, Mike

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9537)	10/25/1997 2:38:00 AM
From: orson sanderson	Respond to of 70976

To All-check this out, Cary S is pissed because there are too many snobbish know it all. chilled Cary. We are merely expressing freedom of speech to the best of our knowledge. what is your take? Regards

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9537)	10/25/1997 10:15:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, It pains me to think that my favorite threadmeister considers me a "know it all". Just because I happen to disagree with your admonition that we should wait for Morgan's '98 forecast before we buy or sell is no reason to brand me an apostate. Remember, we don't all have identical portfolios, risk tolerence or industry exposure. As prices have increased almost fivefold in a little more than a year, many have pared their exposure to the group in a prudent fashion. Many of us have not been as patient as you have been. Many traded out of earlier positions: some too early, some perhaps too late. The volatility has caused others to treat these stocks as mere trading vehicles. When AMAT was approaching 100 (pre-split) you remained cautiously though steadfastly bullish, though you said you were looking for reasons to sell. Perhaps over the past week you may have gotten some reasons, but the stock has already retreated some 40% from its peak. There are some who feel that the market has overreacted to the downside with this latest bout of the Asian flu. I think it may be perfectly reasonable for them to buy at current levels, especially if they are underweighted in the group, are disciplined scale-down buyers, and are longterm investors. As you yourself said, there is no silly selling. There is no silly buying, either. I still believe that Morgan will not be able to tell you when is an opportune time to sell semi-equips. Did he sound a cautionary note in November '95? I believe that AMAT stock itself is the best reflection of what Mr. Morgan's customers are telling him. I think there is a potential for a slowing of industry growth in '98. It would be folly for a good forecaster (and I'm sure Mr. Morgan hires the best) not to recognize such a possibility. I do not believe that the call will sound as confident as its predecessor or his words in the Fortune article. This will cause great gnashing of teeth as the herd tries to determine to what extent the likelihood of a slowdown is already discounted in the stock. I am not going to try to deconstruct his syntax, vocabulary and tone for direction. You said: "I believe it is a disservice to other thread members to refer to my methodology and behavior without explaining that my "BLOOD" prices for AMAT ranged from approximately 1/2 to 1/3 of the current price and they did not assume any level of near term future sales and earnings." I do not believe this is necessary. Your excellent track record speaks for itself. Please keep up the good work. SC