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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (9587)	10/25/1997 10:46:00 PM
From: LemurHouse	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Friends, I think that this entire thread could do with a lot more facts, and a lot less ego. I also think that a fundamental truth is being missed here. Investors (as opposed to speculators for example) should be buying exactly when the news is bad and the stock is out of favor, not buying when everything is rosy and then dumping the stock just because its value is going down. When an industry leader like AMAT, which has the kind of "franchise" that companies would die for, has its stock punished by short term considerations -- and these are short term considerations -- then this just means that there is a good buying opportunity. Who knows how far this puppy will continue to fall -- it could fall quite a bit more. But 18 to 24 months out, this will be a huge winner under just about any scenario. Just a question of how many bags it will return. I would also like to say that a number of posters seem to place an inordinate amount of faith on information posted on this thread. Investors might be well served to examine how well they have developed their own investing strategy, and how well they understand their company and industry, before they risk real money soley upon the opions and analysis that they get in a forum like Silicon Investor. SI should enhance your investing strategy, not be a substitute for one. Sorry for the rant. I enjoy SI and threaders have taught me a lot. But everything has its place. Cheers.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (9587)	10/26/1997 10:51:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, On the positive side, you are the most literate contributor of posts at SI. On the negative side, I seem not able to successfully communicate the essence of my disagreement with you. I try to give objective, careful advice and I am sure I have gained a high degree of humility from my market experiences. I know that there are many different agendas and I have never presumed to believe mine is the best. In the post that raised my hackles, I felt you were "campaigning" for the argument that supported YOUR behavior. You made unequivocal statements that at best are highly arguable and at worst decidedly wrong. You have repeated that in, "I believe that AMAT stock itself is the best reflection of what Mr. Morgan's customers are telling him." Do you really believe that Morgan's customers can run businesses and build multi-billion dollar fabs with the same manic behavior that characterizes stock market volatility? I know you can come back with some erudite discussion of "efficient market theory", but, last November, it was plain that Morgan knew something that the market did not! In fact, Carl Johnson has been vilified on this thread since then because he, almost alone in the "expert" community, had the temerity not to be a Morgan "ditto head" and it has proved to be his only big mistake. You may choose, for whatever reason, not to wait for the AMAT CC, but don't support your decision by minimizing the significance it had last year and may well have this year. You may choose to tell people that I bought before the conference call last year, but you are doing a disservice to many if you infer my actions were based on the kind of reasoning you have presented to support your behavior. I BOUGHT AT PRICES THAT FACTORED IN MY ACCEPTANCE OF THE POSSIBILITY THAT BUSINESS RESULTS WOULD BE MUCH WORSE THAN WHAT ACTUALLY TRANSPIRED. Did you buy at 42 and 30 because you are comfortable holding AMAT all the way down to $6. That was my worst case scenario last year, BOOK VALUE! I accepted that other less prominant semi-equips could reach below 65% of book value. I am not telling people that I believe that the situation is the same as last year. I don't believe it and I have acted on my belief by holding AMAT and other semi-equips. I know that I must act on my belief, but I also know that I am not an expert and I have lost paper profits from holding. Morgan IS an expert! What risk is there to waiting 1 month to hear from the worlds NUMBER 1 expert on the semi-equip business? The reward MIGHT be to avoid a 30-50% gap down opening the next morning! Cary