Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (9584)	10/25/1997 10:34:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, first I want to thank you for starting an excellent discussion! You said >>As someone mentioned (think it was Big Bucks), alot of the tools can do alot more than they are currently doing with minor low cost upgrades compared to buying new tools.<< Assuming this is a fact (I'm not in the industry), it is not new. Semi manufacturers (and AMAT) knew way back, when the projections for the future looked more rosy, that many tools could be upgraded instead of replaced. So AMAT's guidance to analysts must have taken it into account. You make it sound as if the semi makers had initially planned to replace but have now decided to upgrade - at less cost. GM

To: davesd who wrote (9584)	10/25/1997 11:47:00 PM
From: Stu Bishop	Respond to of 70976

Dave, You make good points. With regard to "If all the commodity fabs keep upgrading...when do you see their business getting profitable??" I invest in specific companies. I agree that if you look at semiconductor equipment makers as a group and semiconductor makers as a group, you can find a lot of companies still struggling to reach performance levels of 1995. But I don't think in terms of generalities. I don't invest in the "market". I don't invest in "the commodity fabs". I don't invest in the "semis", or the "SEMs". I invest in sector leaders including AMAT, ALTR, ETEC, SMTC. I also invest with a long term plan because I can't predict the "market". Maybe you're right and this is the wrong time to add $$$ to the semis. But I don't "know" this. I only know that long term, there is a wealth of reward in these companies. Again, if you don't buy after a 35% drop (buying opportunity), when do you buy? I seriously doubt Applied Materials is going much lower. I value it in the low $40s right now, and mid-high $50 in a year. I can't debate the general commodity fabs as you put it, or the best timing. But over any significant period of time, I have a lot of confidence in Applied Materials. Best of luck. Stu B