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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roly who wrote (9585)	10/25/1997 10:34:00 PM
From: davesd	Respond to of 70976

Roly, all I'm doing is providing my opinion (which happens to be bearish right now) of what is going on in the semi industry. How and when to invest your money depends on your goals, timeframes and your "pain" thresholds if the stocks moves lower. I'm not telling anyone nor do I want to tell anyone to buy, sell or hold...just discussing the market conditions. You asked...Is it a good buy at $33? and your basis is that it was at $52, so $33 is a great buy. If there is no slowdown, next year or 1999, it's a great buy, but if estimates get cut to reflect a flat year, then it may not be a good buy at $33....and that is what we are all trying to debate here...what will happen in 1998. So is $33 a good entry point or will there be opportunities for a lower entry point??? I don't know for sure, but market fundamentals seem to be pointing to a slowdown and lower prices.....IMHO. dave

To: roly who wrote (9585)	10/25/1997 10:39:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Roly, As a long time/term investor in AMAT myself, I think you are buying one of the finest investments capable of assured compound returns on the market. It is the "gorilla" of its industry, no doubt. My concern/issue is this. Earlier this year before the huge summer run up (caused by the funds buying and raising prices) AMAT was in the same position that it is in right now, all that has changed is more time has gone by and there are 2x the amount of stock available now as then. In May/June the stock price was fluctuating between about $55 and $70 (and this in only 2 months from $45 average). Once the funds and large investors take profits for the year or for tax purposes what happens if the stock value is perceived to be the same as last June?? A scary thought, yes? That could mean the actual stock value might be perceived as worth $22 to $35 in a high growth potential market. I guess I am questioning the growth prospects next year in light of all the "observations/conjectures" that both Dave and I have stated based on our "perception" of the market fundamentals. If Dave and I agree, it doesn't mean that we are necessarily correct, but at some point the funds and others may come to the same conclusion on any other "bad" or enlightening news that comes forth. I am sort of in the same situation as you, I bought some stock at higher prices but I kept a very sizable amount of cash available to buy as close to the low as I can, which historically is in the mid 1st quarter of Amat's fiscal year, starting in Nov. Hang on for the ride, but at what point do you sell and wait for the bargain prices, and will you have the money when the price is close to its'lows? It is possible that $31 1/4 was the low, but the Nasdaq has gone from about 750 to over 1700 this year, a bit pricey I think, in such a short time. At some point there will be a correction to reasonable levels based on valuation. My feeling is that AMAT will follow the market short term, and go down as the funds take profits to show their gains for the fundholders. There will be lots of money wanting to buy low priced stocks next year, Amat is sure to be on the list. Good investing, BB

To: roly who wrote (9585)	10/25/1997 10:54:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

roly, you said >>I believe I'm getting discount because others had paid for this stock at $52 and now it's $33. Don't you think it is a good buy?<< The bearish position is that $52 was way too high. Just because Macy's has marked down a camera by 30% from list price does not mean it is a bargain - when discounters sell it at half list. The unanswerable question is "will AMAT drop further?". If you want to buy here at 33 and hold for 1-2 years you won't go wrong. But it might go lower first. Today and tomorrow many investors are reading Barrons and other publications for guidance. I would not be surprised if many decide to go into cash or bonds for a while. The Intel fab construction delay is featured everywhere. Most investors don't have the time or inclination to dig deeper. GM PS: I sure want AMAT to rise - added to my position at almost 50.

To: roly who wrote (9585)	10/26/1997 4:01:00 AM
From: geof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I am no expert in semi-equipment but do believe the industry will bounce back and AMAT is the biggest play. Just think of it this way: Do you think AMAT will ever hit new high again? The answer is definitely yes. It's just a matter of time. Then how long would you be willing to wait (if you were an investor not trader)? How about 2-3 years? Any investment that make (54-33)/33 ie 57% in 2-3 years is exceptional. People are just expecting too much of the stock market nowadays. I use the same argument to buy MSFT, INTC, KO, MRK, CCI when they drop more than 25%. AMAT had dropped more than 40% by now. It's cheap enough for me. At 30-33 range it's getting close to be "no brainer" soon. AMAT will be around and will make new highs before year 2000. Actually when to sell is much harder. I've never heard anyone said,"This stock has risen high enough to be a no brainer to sell." Unfortunately Cary's earlier posts( September?)on this very subject yielded no definitive conclusion.