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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (191634)	3/18/2009 8:01:45 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Rules that applied in 2000-2003 NDX V-bottoms apply here for the SPX/NYA V-bottoms, IMO. Above the daily 13-EMA, long. Daily 200-EMA and 200-SMA should be sold. The recent 666 SPX lows most resemble the April 2001 and Sept. 2001 lows on the NDX. Spring recoveries/bounces last shorter than fall recoveries/bounces, primarily due to seasonality of the markets. The overhead target for this bounce should be the daily 200-EMA on the SPX, which should be around 930-944 in a month. In the 2000-2003 bear there was typically a period of distribution following the bear bounce highs, and we saw that off the November 2008 lows. We may get the same again. The new lower lows in 2001 and 2002 on the NDX were typically 1.382 to 1.50 extensions of the bounce. The recent 666 SPX low was a 1.382 extension of the move from the 741 lows to the 944 highs. If we get a bounce to maybe 930 SPX, a 1.382 fib drop would land at SPX 565. A 1.5 extension would be 534 SPX. When the NDX 200-EMA became support in spring 2003, it was time to go long and fuggetaboutit.