Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (192682)	3/23/2009 4:00:48 PM
From: bentway	Respond to of 306849

Dave, tell us all how you believe that Bush was a great president.

To: i-node who wrote (192682)	3/23/2009 4:24:42 PM
From: Poet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

This is just the kind of all-politics post that regulars here are saying "Enough already!" about. I opposed TARP altogether, but in retrospect, it may be what saved us. Unless you're an elected official, I'm not interested in whether you opposed TARP, think the country's headed for socialism, etc. Kindly go away.

To: i-node who wrote (192682)	3/23/2009 4:41:17 PM
From: butschi2	Respond to of 306849

This is laughable. You do realize that Obama's budget AS PROPOSED would increase our debt far more than Bush did, and even the CBO figures for the budget are far too rosy to be reasonable. Right? You know that? The new debt is old debt. Debt forever! Bush pulled in the gains through housing from the future to the now past and pushed the economy over cliff. The wealth from housing was already distributed in the past and inflated the past economy/gains but they have not been payed for and even with this wealth there where huge deficits. The rising (phantom) wealth through housing was spend in the past. The economy as whole and especially banks, mortage brokers, home builders and even government through taxes profited from the housing boom and stoked the fire even higher through spending the gains from the boom. Therefore the prices got totally out of control until there was not enough left any more to stoke the fire further => total collapse. Now is payday! Letting the economy dropping to the floor wouldnt only increase debt to GDP further due to a downward spiral perhaps as big as the great depression or bigger. The world is far more complex than in the past (1930) and far more money is spend for things not really essential that could and would be cut back by consumers. I would expect the economy to drop further than in 1930 if the past errors would be made today as reigning in spending and doing nothing. They have to walk a fine line today between increasing debt (= inflation) and doing not much enough (= depression). If Citibank hits the wall you can use the dollar and euro as toilet paper, because through their $38 trillion in derivatives in a chain reactions all others derivatives player will hit the wall and therefore most big banks and insurers. Paper money and bank accounts would be worthless and even the great depression couldnt kill the dollar or pound. But today we have unregulated leverage based on a bubble. In 1930 there was huge leverage through credits on base assets but mostly the already leveraged base assets have not been used as the underlying of more leverage through derivatives. I do know that the massive spending and move to socialism will not save us. We wouldn't be in the economic mess we're in had not the Dems been talking the economy down for a year. Obama is not in power for a year! The economy is a very big super tanker and bombs exploding today have been layed in 2004-2007. At the beggining of 2007 it was to late and the nowadays outcome with the exception of the idiotic failure to let Lehman down was unstoppable, only the time frame was up in the air. Thats simple math everybody can understand, with the exception of Bush and other idiots in politic which were reaping the benefits of the boom without any consideration to the following bust. Perhaps God should have given Bush some very very small understanding of simple math! Big Bomm => Big Bust! The greatest housing boom => the greatest bust You don't know this and I don't, either. If GDP contracts 3-5% as predicted, jobless rate will go up something of 3-5% or perhaps higher if there is a need for growth due to more people entering the workforce or more productivity. With a 20-25% GDP reduction you would have social unrest and perhaps a situation that resembles civil war because the pretentions people have today are far higher than in 1930. In the past times you wanted to eat now you want to live good. The economy is more a product of economic cycles and general consumer attitudes than it is anything else. When you have the Democrats telling us it is the worst economy in 30 years it isn't surprising when the economy heads south. Yes, it has been until Greenspan/Bush interfered and created the housing bubble. We dont have a normal recession now. Japan has around 40-50% less exports and a GDP contracting at SAAR of >10%. Thats not a "normal" recession thats a bust after a very long boom and this boom was further willfully inflated witht the biggest assets on earth: the american housing market The United States as we knew it is on life support and the Obama social programs will kill it for good. No the world is on life support not the US only. If you have a realativly stable system(= economy) with some cyclical recessions and booms and you inflate the boom beyond normal, you dont only create a greater bust but you create an UNSTABLE SYSTEM on the verge of a total collapse. If nothing would be done: - no stimulus - no banking rescues The economy would collapse and even with this programms it may happen. GDP going down 15% you have 15% more job less and society on the verge of disintegrating. Public anger is rising fast and could provoke riots soon.