SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (192722)3/23/2009 6:30:31 PM
From: i-nodeRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
>> Bush's deficits were structural. Obama's are cyclical.

You have this absolutely backwards. How have you concluded this?

No administration since FDR has faced the difficulties the Bush administration faced -- 9/11, conducting two wars simultaneously, having to spend a ton of money to secure the nation from further attack, Katrina, all balled up with a level of unwarranted political hatred by his opposition unseen since the 1800 election in this country.

Obama's budget proposes deficits as far as the eye can see that result from massive spending programs that are solely required by a socialist agenda.

How you can make such a statement as you did is beyond me. You obviously don't have a clue what you're talking about.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (192722)3/23/2009 6:31:40 PM
From: PoetRespond to of 306849
 
Nicely said, CR.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (192722)3/23/2009 6:35:24 PM
From: stockman_scottRespond to of 306849
 
U.S. Markets Wrap: S&P 500 Caps Biggest 10-Day Gain Since 1938

By Lynn Thomasson and Adam Haigh

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied, capping the market’s steepest two-week gain since 1938, as investors speculated the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur growth and investor Mark Mobius said a new bull market has begun. Treasuries and the dollar fell.

Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. both soared at least 19 percent as the U.S. Treasury said it will finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of distressed assets. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. jumped more than 6.7 percent after oil rose to an almost four-month high. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index extended its rebound from a 12-year closing low on March 9 to 22 percent as all 10 of its main industry groups advanced.

“You have to be careful not to miss the opportunity,” said Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging- market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California- based Templeton Asset Management Ltd. “With all the negative news, there is a tendency to hold back,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Hong Kong.

The S&P 500 gained 7.1 percent to 822.92, its biggest increase since Oct. 28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 497.48 points, or 6.8 percent, to a five-week high of 7,775.86. The MSCI World Index climbed for the ninth time in 10 days, adding 5.4 percent. Twenty-one stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest rally since at least July 2004.

Public-Private Investment Program

The Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Program will use $75 billion to $100 billion from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program enacted last year, giving the government “purchasing power” of $500 billion. The Treasury said the program may double “over time.”

Benchmark indexes extended gains in early trading after an industry report showed home sales unexpectedly increased in February.

The MSCI World, a gauge of 23 developed nations, has added almost 21 percent since March 9 as Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they made money in the first two months of 2009 and the Federal Reserve agreed to buy $300 billion of government bonds to combat the financial crisis.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 23 developing nations gained 5.1 percent today, erasing its 2009 drop. Mobius, who was voted among the “Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century” by the Carson Group, said emerging markets are in “better shape” than developed economies.

‘Helluva Rally’

“This is a helluva rally,” Myles Zyblock, the Toronto- based chief institutional strategist for RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to investors. The U.S. stock market has moved “through the 50-day moving average and then the 800 area like a hot knife through butter.”

Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender by assets, surged 26 percent to $7.80. Citigroup, whose biggest shareholder may soon be U.S. taxpayers, soared 19 percent to $3.13. JPMorgan added 25 percent to $28.86. The three banks led gains in all 30 Dow average companies.

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest bank, rose 8.5 percent to 30.70 euros. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank, advanced 4.7 percent to 512 yen.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has crafted an approach to spur investment funds to purchase the illiquid securities and loans that have caused credit to dry up. Because the program depends on private investors, it may be months before it’s clear if it will work. The plan relies on Federal Reserve financing and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. debt guarantees.

‘Very, Very Positive’

“With the government taking most of the downside, that is basically what’s going to entice bids,” Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, told Bloomberg Television. “This is a very, very positive thing for the credit markets.”

The S&P 500 Financials Index of banks, insurers and investment firms has surged 58 percent from its March 6 low including an 18 percent rally today, its steepest since Nov. 24.

Treasury 10-year notes fell, driving yields higher, following Geithner’s plan. The U.S. prepared to sell $98 billion of two-, five- and seven-year notes this week.

“Stocks are up and tomorrow starts a big supply week,” said Raymond Remy, who heads fixed income at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “Treasuries are under pressure.”

Yields Rise

The yield on the 10-year note rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.67 percent at 3:55 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.75 percent security due in February 2019 fell 11/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 22/32.

The yield on the two-year note increased three basis points to 0.89 percent, while the yield on the five-year note advanced five basis points to 1.69 percent.

The yen and dollar fell against most of their major counterparts on speculation additional U.S. government steps to help banks dispose of toxic assets will reduce demand for the currencies’ safety.

“It looks like it’s a story that speaks more to a recovery in risk appetite,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “It plays more to the strengths of the Aussie and the kiwi.”

The yen depreciated 1.7 percent to 132.44 per euro at 4:07 p.m. in New York, from 130.29 on March 20. It touched 132.48, the weakest level since Oct. 21. The yen declined 1.2 percent to 97.08 per dollar from 95.94. The dollar lost 0.4 percent to $1.3642 per euro from $1.3582. The U.S. currency reached $1.3738 on March 19, the weakest level since Jan. 9.

Four-Month High

Crude oil rose to the highest in almost four months as the U.S. stock market advanced, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy-consuming country will rebound.

Oil climbed 3.3 percent after equities increased on speculation that the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of distressed assets will spur growth. Stock and commodity markets extended gains after a report showed that U.S. sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly climbed in February.

“Oil is moving higher with the stock market today on the announcement of a plan to buy toxic assets,” said Adam Sieminski, the chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington.

Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.73 to $53.80 a barrel at 2:43 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 28. Prices are up 21 percent this year.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 23, 2009 17:15 EDT



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (192722)3/23/2009 6:59:47 PM
From: stockman_scottRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Nobel Winners Spence and Krugman Clash on Geithner Plan Prospects

By Scott Lanman

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has a good chance of succeeding with his plan to cleanse banks of toxic assets, says A. Michael Spence, co-winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics. Paul Krugman, the newest laureate, is so sure Geithner will fail that he’s full of “despair.”

Even winners of the highest awards in economics can’t always be right. Which prediction proves correct depends in part on whether private investors can be enticed to bid on as much as $1 trillion of illiquid loans and securities that banks are now stuck with.

“This program is crucially dependent on the private sector as participants and price setters,” said Spence, 65, who shared the Nobel Prize with George Akerlof and Joseph Stiglitz for a theory that found some government intervention can make markets more efficient. “It could work,” Spence said.

That’s not an opinion shared by 2008 Nobel laureate Krugman. “The real problem with this plan is that it won’t work,” Krugman, 56, said in his New York Times opinion column today.

Geithner appears to be going back to the “cash for trash” approach of his predecessor as Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, Krugman said. “This is more than disappointing. In fact, it fills me with a sense of despair.”

Krugman’s Advice

Instead of financing the purchase of illiquid assets, the government should guarantee many bank debts, take control of “insolvent” firms and clean up their books, similar to what Sweden did in the 1990s, Krugman said.

While Spence, a Stanford University professor and former business-school dean, has more confidence in Geithner, even he isn’t positive the Treasury secretary can pull it off.

The Treasury plan “is a little complex to implement,” Spence said. “I assume the Treasury has done its homework, and has people lined up” to commit private capital to Geithner’s public-private partnerships, he said.

A crucial question is whether private investors can stomach potential threats and scrutiny from Congress, whose move last week toward taxing employee bonuses may drive bidders away, said Carnegie Mellon University professor Allan Meltzer, 81, author of a history of the Federal Reserve.

Geithner’s plan “will certainly help,” Meltzer, 1997 winner of New York University’s Money Marketeers Distinguished Achievement Award, said in a telephone interview today. At the same time, “the Congress has really clobbered the rule of law, and that has terrible implications for the future,” he said.

$1 Trillion of Assets

The plan is aimed at financing $500 billion to $1 trillion in purchases of illiquid real-estate assets, using $75 billion to $100 billion of the Treasury’s remaining bank-rescue funds. It also will rely on Fed financing and guarantees from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Treasury left some details to be announced later, including the precise amounts investors would be required to put up for each type of asset and the terms of loans that the Fed would provide.

Lawrence Summers, 54, a former Treasury secretary and head of Obama’s National Economic Council, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today that he was “surprised” by the negative comments from Krugman.

Summers, no Nobel laureate but the 1993 winner of the John Bates Clark medal as outstanding U.S. economist under 40, said he doesn’t know of “any economist who doesn’t believe that better-functioning capital markets, on which assets can be traded, are a good idea.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 23, 2009 17:51 EDT



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (192722)3/25/2009 3:53:46 AM
From: stockman_scottRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Geithner & Bernanke Seek to Plug Gaps in Financial Regulation

By Robert Schmidt and Scott Lanman

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration is preparing an overhaul of U.S. banking rules that would force financial companies to keep more cash on hand in case their trading bets go wrong.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers yesterday that changes will include “strong oversight, including appropriate constraints on risk-taking.” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the case of American International Group Inc. showed the “intense problem” of trading with insufficient capital to guard against losses.

“You’ll see less risk assumed, and that might lead to lower profits on average,” said Robert Parry, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco from 1986 to 2004. “There’s no doubt that the administration and regulators are going” to get banks to treat risk differently.

The comments foreshadowed what may become the biggest overhaul to U.S. banking rules since the 1930s. To prevent the nation from losing its share of the global financial industry, the administration will also need to ensure that regulators abroad take similar measures, Geithner said.

“Without that, there is a risk that capital will move, business will shift from the United States, and we’ll end up with a weaker system overall,” the Treasury chief said at a House Financial Services Committee hearing yesterday.

G-20 Summit

Geithner will offer more details on the administration’s plans at the same House panel tomorrow. President Barack Obama will present the outline to his counterparts in the Group of 20 developed and emerging nations at an April 2 summit in London.

The Treasury chief also called yesterday for new authority to seize and wind down failing financial companies in the aftermath of the AIG rescue, which has ballooned to $182.5 billion from an initial $85 billion in September. Obama said in a news conference late yesterday that he expects there will be “strong support” for the proposal.

The powers would allow the Treasury secretary to establish a conservatorship or receivership for a failing firm, including control over the company’s operations and the ability to impose partial losses on its creditors.

While the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has the ability to take over failing deposit-taking firms and wind down their assets, no such authority exists for financial firms that aren’t classified as banks, such as AIG or a hedge fund with extensive links throughout the banking system.

‘Urgent Need’

“AIG highlights the urgent need for new resolution procedures for systemically important non-bank financial firms,” Bernanke said.

Barney Frank, the chairman of the House panel, said he supported the call for legislation to put nonbanks “out of their misery.” The authority will “allow us to avoid all or nothing” -- referring to the bailout for AIG and the decision by regulators in September to allow Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to file for bankruptcy, worsening the financial crisis.

Geithner separately pledged to lawmakers that his plan to shore up the financial system “will work,” provided it has sufficient resources. Without committing to request more money for the $700 billion rescue fund, he said that “we’ll need to work with Congress to make sure we can do this on a scale that’s going to make it work.”

The Treasury plan uses $75 billion to $100 billion to help finance a $500 billion initiative to help private investors buy the distressed loans and securities on banks’ balance sheets.

Hedge Funds

The strategy would also allow hedge, pension and mutual funds to sell mortgage-backed securities to investors financed by the Treasury and Fed. All market participants will be eligible to participate, an administration official said yesterday.

During the hearing, Representative Edward Royce, a California Republican, warned against government support undermining incentives and creating an unfair playing field.

“At the end of the day, we undermine market discipline because we telegraphed the message to the market that the government is behind these institutions,” Royce said.

Geithner said regulators and lawmakers need to “bring these markets into an oversight framework that better provides better protection for the financial system.”

It is “critically important” that companies that invest in products such as credit default swaps “hold enough capital or reserves or cushions against the risk those instruments present.”

‘Intense Problem’

Bernanke said that “there was a particularly intense problem at AIG because they were essentially using these swaps to sell insurance against which they neither had capital nor did they have hedging, and so when -- when the insured event occurred, then there were enormous losses.”

AIG was overseen by the Office of Thrift Supervision, whose expertise is in smaller banks that accept deposits from consumers and make home mortgages. “It was obviously a poor match for them to be looking at the activities” of AIG’s financial-products unit, Bernanke said.

Both Bernanke and Geithner favored a consolidated regulator that can look at financial risk across the system.

The two reiterated their opposition to bonus payments for the AIG financial-products division, with Bernanke saying he had initially sought a lawsuit to halt them.

“Regulators must apply standards, not just to protect the soundness of individual institutions, but to protect the stability of the system as a whole,” the Treasury chief said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Schmidt in Washington at rschmidt5@bloomberg.net; Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 25, 2009 00:00 EDT



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (192722)3/25/2009 10:30:43 PM
From: stockman_scottRead Replies (4) | Respond to of 306849
 
Give credit to Timothy Geithner's new toxic asset plan

nydailynews.com

By Matthew Richardson and Nouriel Roubini

Wednesday, March 25th 2009

For the economy to be viable, the financial system must be healthy. For this to occur, the system needs to be cleansed of its poorly performing loans and so-called toxic securities backed by loans. This way, once creditworthy institutions and individuals come to the market looking for capital to borrow, financial firms will be in a position to lend them money.

Secretary Timothy Geithner's new toxic asset plan is a serious step in the right direction in that it creates a public-private partnership to buy the troubled assets of financial firms - in other words, to do the necessary cleansing. Up until now, with all the government bailouts, the financial system has been barely treading water. With this plan, it will still be a hard swim, but, at least, there is a path to shore.

The plan essentially calls for private asset management firms - private equity, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds - to invest side by side with the government.

The private investors need the government because there are so many bad loans held in the financial sector that only the government's balance sheet can handle taking them over. The government needs help from private investors so it doesn't get hoodwinked by the banks.

Why will investors participate? The deal is structured so that firms will be responsible only for losses on their initial investment. The hope is that by giving this big "freebie," the government will induce investors to participate, and that competition among them will lead to higher offer prices for the loans and securities, thus encouraging banks to sell them.

A lot of ifs, but if indeed successful, the plan accomplishes mission No. 1, namely the removal of the bad assets from banks' balance sheets. Even if banks wanted to do this on their own, they can't because the market for these illiquid assets has dried up.

But let's not have any illusions. The government bears the risk if and when the investors take a bath on the taxpayer-provided loans. If the economy gets worse, it could get very ugly, very quickly. The administration should be transparent in making clear that there is still a wealth transfer taking place here - from taxpayers to investors and banks.

Also, while this plan is designed by the Treasury, many of the big guarantees are being made by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Fed. Why not use only Treasury funds? Well, then the administration would have to deal with Congress. While the populist hysteria of last week suggests this end run might make sense, there is something a little worrying about circumventing the legislative process on such a huge investment.

Moreover, there's the issue of transparency - or lack thereof. No one knows what the loans or securities are worth. Competing investors will help solve this by promoting price discovery. But be careful what you wish for. We might not like the answers.

Finally, we have to anticipate the likelihood that some banks will resist selling their loans and securities. Why? Currently, the government has been giving them the option to keep holding them with the hope that market conditions will improve.

Going forward, the government must insist on the banks' involvement in the new program. The reason that financial institutions must be pressured is that they are the cause of the financial crisis. They took advantage of loopholes to avoid regulatory requirements, taking a huge bet on securities they were never meant to hold in the first place.

What happens if removing toxic assets from a bank's balance sheet at near-market prices shows it is effectively insolvent? Then we will have to face the elephant in the room. We may then have to start asking, "Why keep insolvent banks afloat?" And having asked that, we will have to search for ways to manage the ensuing systemic risk.

Either way, once the plan is fully implemented, we will be entering a new phase of the financial crisis. The water is choppy. Let's hope we are strong swimmers.

*Richardson and Roubini are professors at the NYU Stern School of Business and have contributed to the recently published book, "Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System."