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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (9619)	10/26/1997 12:54:00 PM
From: orson sanderson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, how shall I put 1996. Slowdown attributed to too much 16MB Dram prices falling due to continuous production with demand being static and unable to meet the increased supply(overcapacity) or demand sluggish relative to supply of chip and causes the slowdown- which is...?? You can tell me as you like it.;-) You can called it whatever terms but to me is due to overcapacity or supply exceeding demand. There were no known recession yet in 1996 in Asia or US. Regards

To: davesd who wrote (9619)	10/26/1997 2:18:00 PM
From: Jeff Mills	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, Just wondering if you have heard any of the actualy companies (not techweb news stories, nor analysts, nor any other sources) reveal a downturn in 1998? I have listened to LRCXs and CYMIs conference call, and neither mentioned a sales meltdown. Flat sales--yes they mentioned it as a possibility. But no huge slump of new orders was forecast. Flat sales vs. a order downturn are two different scenerios. AMATs stock at $32 has/is pricing in a downturn in the industry (ie. sequential decreases of revenue q after q going forward into 1998). In 1996, AMAT sales hit a downturn. The revenue fell from $1127MM to $1115MM to $861 MM to $835MM. Since the bottom, AMAT has had four straight increases in quarterly sales (anticipated at an all-time record $1200MM to be revealed in November). If sales are flat through 1998 (say ~ $1 Billion per Q), there has been no downturn. There just has been no growth. See the difference? Just wondering if you have heard from management anywhere about a big downturn--or if it indeed just generated news due to speculation. Thanks.