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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (9674)	10/27/1997 1:31:00 AM
From: Kumar Nathan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Norm & Tito: Good to be at our thread. I am watching this Hong Kong Mkt. As of now (Monday morning) it looks pretty bad. It appears that it is giving away most of its Friday gain. Dollar is getting stronger. I anticipate, yield on 30yr bond will continue to fall. My anticipation are as follows. There will be general market nervousness from Monday thru Wednesday. After that I anticipate market to rally on Thursday and Friday. Main reason is Chinese guys vist and they will finish their meetin with clintons on Wednesday. I think Wednesday Alan G is talking to congress. Therefore market is nervously waiting all those events to unfold. The only options available to market is to go down. I anticipate again back to back 100 points drop of dow on Monday and Tuesdays. Nasdaq will drop much more than what we have seen. I wouldnt be surprised Nasdaq to drop more than 50 points to be in equilibrium with Dow. AMAT will go down to 28-29 range by tommorrow and further down on Tuesday. You can see a biggest jump on Thursday. I anticipate close to 5 points jump on Thursday and I also anticipate it to close higher (at the end of week) than it started for the week. I want to analyse one more bit of information. Tito you might remember, somebody posted a detailed analysis of equipment market, in terms of tools and in terms of geogrophic regions. I dont know where it is now. But I bookmarked that at my work. I will look at it. If there is major change I will post my revised prediction. This Hongkong stuff is closely orchestrated. It is not a fluke that it happening during chinese high officials visit. Market is going to take violent swings and the administrations focus will be on the market, and clinton administration will not use any rehotoric statements against chinese (with the fear that it might piss them off). Right now chinese is the major holder of US treasury. If clinton and his foreign secretary ( I forgot her name) piss-off chinese guys on human rights stuff the next best thing they will do is to sell US treasury which is going very strong to fund Hongkong loss. This will make US treasury market and currency market and stock markets in a tail-spin. Therefore fiscally speaking US government's finance right now is at the mercy of chinese guys and Clinton will make sure he dont piss them off. I hope I make sense. Tito, I havent visited this thread for some time. I want to know whether our friend Joe Donato & his analyst friend visited us? Remeber , he was in full swing when AMAT was at this level some 5-6 months ago. Regards Kumar.