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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mason Barge who wrote (6684)10/26/1997 6:44:00 PM
From: sepku  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25960
 
>>>Ummm, no. Not unless Uncle Sam has started taking 63% in taxes. I get $1.88 per share. 600 x $400,000 x .38 x .63/30,500,00 shares.<<<

Thanks Mason, for pointing that out.

Sal, it looks like my numbers do compute after all. 1.80 to 2.20, like I said. These numbers are NOT pre-split.

Style Pts.



To: Mason Barge who wrote (6684)10/26/1997 6:48:00 PM
From: jpmac  Respond to of 25960
 
mason: umm, it does come out to 1.88. i will be interested to
read david's continuation. he is taking more into account than
i have to work with. i would happy enough with 1.50-1.60. i see
no way, even taking the most conservative approach, that earnings
could be less than that with sales in the 600 range.

jp



To: Mason Barge who wrote (6684)10/26/1997 7:00:00 PM
From: sepku  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
Here are Zack's numbers that apparently haven't been updated since Q2's results:

*******************************
Research Analyst's Earnings Estimates and Actuals
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consensus Estimate for Current Fiscal Year ( 12/97 ) $ 0.81 per share Consensus Estimate for Next Fiscal Year ( 12/98 )$ 1.03 per share
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consensus Estimate for Current Quarter ( 9/97 ) $ 0.21 per share Actual Earnings Last Quarter ( 6/97 ) $ 0.24 per share
EPS Surprise Last Quarter 50 %
********************************

Also, note that no analysts bothered to revise estimates for several months, even following 2Q's 50% blowout. So I believe the consensus estimates for eps in 1998 are severely outdated by at least 6 months and do not factor in the developing factors within that period of time. It is a well-known fact that the industry experts and analysts did not anticipate migration to 0.25 litho this soon. After these institutions have accumulated to their satisfaction, there will be upgrades and eps revisions. Notice that based on these defunct numbers from Zacks, that growth from '97 (0.81) to '98 (1.03) anticipated a mere 27% growth. Way off mark and seriously outdated.

Style Pts.



To: Mason Barge who wrote (6684)10/26/1997 7:00:00 PM
From: damniseedemons  Respond to of 25960
 
Yes, you're right. Sorry about that.

However, I do still believe the method (#laser x 400k x GM x (1-tax) / #shares) isn't a good way making estimates.



To: Mason Barge who wrote (6684)10/26/1997 9:38:00 PM
From: ScotMcI  Respond to of 25960
 
When doing these calculations, don't forget the company operates in the Tax Hell of California. I don't know what the corporate rate is, but the personal rate tops out in the vicinity of 9%.