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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (76013)	4/8/2009 6:29:54 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 118717

A 3 year rally crammed in between 2 big recessions and a 3 year credit crunch made for alot of emotional drama. Commodities were the only place for real returns over the past decade. Lot's of demand from all the excess construction in the US and elsewhere. Plus, all the oil and gas companies kept talking peak oil and $80 marginal costs of production. Now, they have the same inventory problems as every other industry! I read some guy talking about $200 oil in 6 to 9 months and it made me gag. Every oil and gas rig in North America is sitting idle right now, OPEC has shut in 4 mbd of production, and they have the capacity to grow from 8 mbd to 12 mbd with all their new investments. My only point is the very best times to invest are in the deep dark days of a recession, but not the begininning. Maybe they aren't as dark as a couple of weeks ago, but they are still pretty bleak. Finally, I think we are getting to the point where the cyclicals begin to outperform this market. Autos and banks could be the biggest winners over the next couple of years. No matter how stinky the economy, things will slowly improve. Auto sales have been declining since 2000. It seems to me they could improve from this year to 2019.