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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (102748)	4/18/2009 12:09:38 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 110194

Although there is great fundamental value here, there is no evidence (or confirmation) of a bottom in this market yet. UNG just hit a 52 week low this past Monday and the bears are still on the rampage. My starter position is only a 25% stake: I always plan the trade and trade the plan: Message 25571367 <<A major gas producer has announced plans to cut output>> The rig count is dropping too. That's bullish over the intermediate term. But short term that means there's likely a lot more bad news to come out. I'll have to see the market's reaction. PS I've been very bearish on gold short term. I see serious risk to the $679 level (if not lower) before the next leg up: Message 25565689 Message 25549712 Message 25533156 You may be surprised that the yellow metal falls along with the equity market during the next correction.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (102748)	5/1/2009 2:33:44 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

From yesterday's 52 week low, UNG has now fallen slightly over 80% from its high. Although there is still no confirmation of a bottom in sight, what was most impressive about yesterday's reversal and the rally (thus far) today is that it has taken place on some horrendous news: the most recent Natural Gas Report was +82BCF. That's unbelievable. Industrial demand is way down. Production is up sharply. This is exactly the kind of news I want to hear when I am buying. KOL, which fell over 84% from its high, has now doubled in value from its 52 week low. The same fate awaits UNG. Those who were too fearful to buy UNG when prices are cheap will gather huge amounts of confidence to jump in and buy after it rallies 50% or even doubles from current levels.