To: TobagoJack who wrote (48705 ) 4/19/2009 4:06:25 AM From: elmatador Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217593 Real wastrels are not the people but governments. We had many rich countries with poor people. Crisis is very healthy as it forces the governments surrender money back to the people. Latest Brazil Tax Breaks Not Enough To Avoid Recession Article By Tom Murphy Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--The latest tax breaks announced by Brazil's government will help buttress production and jobs, but they won't be enough to avoid a short-term recession. Finance Minister Guido Mantega on Friday announced cuts of up to 10 percentage points in the IPI industrial products tax on white-line appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines. The cuts come on top of similar reductions for motor vehicles and auto parts. "This is a step in the right direction, especially since tax cuts have an immediate effect on cutting prices and attracting consumers," said Jason Vieira, an economist at Sao Paulo's UpTrend consulting group. "But we're still going to have a technical recession because of negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009." Brazil's economy shrank by 3.6%, quarter-on-quarter, in last three months of 2008. Most economists expect first-quarter figures to show another significant, if less dramatic, dip. Vieira noted that two consecutive quarters of contraction constitute what many economists regard as "a technical recession." A slow recovery is likely starting in the second quarter, but this week's central bank survey of economists produced an average forecast for 2009 showing an economic contraction of 0.30%. Brazil's economy expanded 5.1% in 2008. At the very least, the government tax measures will help ameliorate effects of the economic crisis, offering short-term relief until the return of good times. Lourival Kicula, president of the National Home Appliance Manufacturers Association, predicted a 10% rise in home-appliance sales during the three months that the tax cut remains in effect. "We've been working toward getting this measure approved, and we're very happy with it," Kicula said. In the case of cars, price cuts averaging 7.4% came into effect almost as soon as the IPI tax cut was announced in January. First-quarter domestic sales of motor vehicles rose 3.1% from 2008 to 668,262 units. The tax cut for motor vehicles is scheduled to remain in effect until June 30. Nevertheless, National Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association President Jackson Schneider said, "We are expecting domestic sales to fall starting in the third quarter because we are already working with the idea that the IPI benefit will end." The association is predicting a 3.9% decline in motor-vehicle sales for 2009 as a whole. Similarly, the effect of the tax cuts on Brazil's troubled steel companies is also likely to be quite limited. A spokesman for the Brazilian Steelmakers Association said the group welcomed the government's move but added that white-line goods were a relatively small part of the industry's market, accounting for just over 6% of sales. Brazil's steel industry is hurting more than most in Brazil. Domestic Brazilian steel sales are likely to fall 19% and exports by 35% this year, UBS Pactual bank said in a report released earlier this week. The tax cut on white-line goods is a favorite personal policy of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, aimed at creating employment. Mantega noted that he had received a "verbal guarantee" from manufacturers that they would maintain job levels for at least as long as the tax cuts remain in effect. After that, the finance minister said Friday, he hopes "better times will return." -By Tom Murphy, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-11-2847-4519; brazil@dowjones.com (John Kolodziejski in Rio de Janeiro and Rogerio Jelmayer in Sao Paulo contributed to this article.)