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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (196906)	4/19/2009 8:11:13 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

TH, my home is worth 2x in nominal dollars over what i paid in 1998 - and i distinctly believed that i paid fair value at the time of purchase. only interest rates are lower - every other economic indicator is blood red compared to 1998. that includes the myth that real estate always goes up. i figure 30% down, in nominal dollars gets us equivalent to 1998 adjusted for inflation. that may take 18-24 months as the naive buy into this falling knife. i think we go lower than fair value - perhaps much lower. this isn't just psychological, the economy is cracking, too, and that will force millions to sell. in CA, taxes are exploding as the GM style government doesn't want to cut back. businesses and people will leave even faster than before (the number of legal residents are down from a decade ago). yeah, i think it gets worse - and i live in socal real estate! when the markets topped out in 1989, it was a full 6-7 years before we hit bottom - and that bubble is barely a blip compared to this one. people that bought 2 years out (1991) were bloodied badly and many forced to sell at large losses.