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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (3984)	10/27/1997 12:26:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24933

ALL / Anyone Home Perhaps I'm not the only one fizzled out. The activity of postings at many other sites are minimal. With the markets taking a beating today, must admit I'm a little discouraged with short term prospects. I've been saying all along (actually about 300 points ago in relation to the Oil & Gas Producers Index) that the 4th quarter will be a lull period in regards to share activity of the producers. Contributing factors were lower oil prices and anticipated negative financial reports of the companies leading the bull market here in the states. After I commented on the oil price trend, crude oil jumped. But, I see no reason for such trend to continue upward. Still feel that oil will trade in the +4% to -10% range from current price over the short term (3 months). But, the key factor is -- companies will be realizing less per barrel of crude in comparison to last year and I believe that condition will exist through the 1st quarter of next year. The other comment about the market in general being tied into 3rd quarter earnings reports had some merit. However, most of these reports have been released and near future impact on the markets will be minimal. Now, we have a new factor - sinking markets in the Far East. Not being an economist, I am not totally sure what the effects will be on the North American markets. But, this is the second day that declining markets in the Far East has had a material effect on the markets here. So, where do we go from here. My answer is - absolutely nowhere. I'm holding in most cases and taking profits in some cases. My profit taking is with the small companies who have had good runs to this point in time. I expect a fallback in shares of most companies because of high evaluations. However, I'm thinking long term and will sit out the market up's and down's. The companies with material impacting stories (not the Vancouver hype type) will be the performers over the short term. If you're looking for value, they are hard to find at this stage of the game. My guess is that the international juniors, reporting favorable results in drilling activity, will be the performers over the next few months. And, don't overlook the service sector. Regardless of stockmarket activity, these companies will be profiting over the next 18 months. It is strictly a situation of market evaluation here. Some shares appear to be quite pricey, but others do not. There will be new star performers coming out of this sector and I'm looking at the recent new upstarts for above average gains. Last, and what I originally intended this message to be about. Looking for a little browsing of info regarding the oil patch? Start here for a glimpse (18 pages worth) of last week's activity. exchange2000.com