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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: AllansAlias who wrote (2150)4/30/2009 12:15:40 PM
From: ftian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3209
 
AA, I just want to make sure I understand what you said. Are you expecting a large pull-back after SP500 gets close to or punch up through 900? A good buying point will be after this pull back?

I always enjoy reading your views.



To: AllansAlias who wrote (2150)5/6/2009 2:22:46 PM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3209
 
Things like the near-unanimous bearishness on the part of bankers (link below) make me wonder that perhaps we are in a recovery which is larger than a mere wave 4.

While the chart allows for different interpretations, it can be that we are in W2 of a larger impulse.... or in W2 of a (putative) large ED down.... or in a Wave B. All of those are bearish in the longer term - but bullish for many weeks, maybe months.

Did I just call a top? - LOL!

Message 25622973



To: AllansAlias who wrote (2150)5/9/2009 10:51:19 AM
From: Perspective1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3209
 
Mutual fund flows: does this strike you as a touch odd?

Most of the redemptions, bear-to-date, took place in September and October of last year - above SPX 900. Very little selling took place at the "lows". Isn't that a tad strange if those were really the ultimate, spooky bottom?





`BC



To: AllansAlias who wrote (2150)5/11/2009 9:28:53 AM
From: sandeep  Respond to of 3209
 
What is meant by punching through 900? Have we punched through it already? Thanks.



To: AllansAlias who wrote (2150)5/16/2009 10:36:09 AM
From: Perspective  Respond to of 3209
 
My thoughts on "bearish" vs. "Bearish" (with a capital "b") - prompted by some data published by Hulbert a week ago:

Message 25649013

My impression:

"bears" revert to bullishness at the first whiff of improvement, because they're still on board long-term.

"Bears" remain steadfastly bearish because they finally threw in the towel, cashed out the 401k, and are hunkered down for the duration. No green shoots are going to impress them because they just sold out at the low...

`BC