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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (77603)	5/4/2009 2:50:31 PM
From: Paul Kern	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

I'm not convinced that the governments won't do the right thing and withdraw liquidity as required.. (which the bear view assume as a given)... I'm worry that Bernanke doesn't have testicles to do the right thing and I also worry that with plants closed, workers laid off, and inventories cratered, we may have demand driven inflation.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (77603)	5/4/2009 4:44:01 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 118717

>>>I'm not convinced that the governments won't do the right thing and withdraw liquidity as required.. (which the bear view assume as a given)... <<< Now wait . . . Are you saying that the bear view assumes the governments WON'T withdraw liquidity? What I assume is that if the DO withdraw liquidity, that action will knock equity markets down much below the lows seen to date. Interest rates will be competing with small returns on equity. Remember that in 1982, the combination of ten years of serious inflation and high interest rates was holding back stock prices to real levels much below where they had been at least 16 years earlier. I also assume that while commodities will continue to be cyclical, the cycles will be at a much higher price level.