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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (34426)	5/9/2009 5:33:04 AM
From: anializer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78712

Looks OK to me. Surprised at healthcare in general but I suppose I shouldn't be as the powers that be are encouraging more risk taking and less defensive stocks. On another note my OLP has now usurped my DFT position which was my largest. I like OLP alot because they are not losing money but making good money. In addition it sells at a 65% discount to the value of its assets. So dips haven't shaken me, and I believe dips are opportunities. Based on the chart, I think this is going higher. Key is when to enter a trading position, but if and when it offers up an opportunity, this is a good one with alot of upside imo. With regards to CT, this one I think requires some nerves of steel and a stomach made of iron being that the low priced issues like this are subject to 30% daily swings. But the bottom line is that it's got a tangible book value of $14.66 a share after, and that's after this last report which saw them lose $3.28 a share. I doubt we will get those types of large loan loss reserves again, and there were alot of one time refinancing of debt expense charges. It's a gamble but I see a couple of positives, mainly its too cheap. My hunch is that the stock down near all time lows tends to act that way to shake the last of the mohicans out before it makes a move. So I've been hanging on and trying to develop a tough skin to the daily gyrations. I had too much though and let some go profitably. Somewhere between the tangible net worth and the actual price where it is, there has to be a higher happier median. There is just to big a spread between what its worth and what it sells for. Even if they report more losses they would have to lose another $13 per share to justify this price and I think that's unlikely.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (34426)	5/9/2009 5:49:42 AM
From: anializer	2 Recommendations Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 78712

A few more thoughts I've been pondering in the wee hours of the night when its quiet and I can focus. That doesn't make my perceptions correct, but what the heck, we gotta start somewhere with a thought before we get proven wrong. BDN peaks my interest on a dip. I've never owned it but if she dips I may try some. Tangible value is $18 a share, again a good discount. Very small loss this past qtr. But estimates are for them to have good earnings this year and next. They only lost 3 cents in Q1 2009. NGPC, my sense is that Book value is 11.23 and it still has some room to go up. But not alot more in it and I took 1/2 of my position off at 8.19. May be another 1 or 2 bucks in it. NSIT looks like a good value to me. Book is $8.50 and estimates are for decent earnings. In fact they report on Tuesday so it could be very volatile both before and after. My hunch is that watch Monday early and if it looks stable to up , worth a try but need to get out before report on Tuesday. Might be a trade. LAD has a book value of $10, so still a nice discount to fair value. And it appears that financial income is poised to improve. A little short term extended here but dips can still be bought imo. It seems the unlikely scenarios in this market, are the ones that work. Auto Dealerships - who the hell would want to buy auto dealerships? Yet it goes up. DFT is still seriously undervalued, but analyst downgraded it to market perform. I think undervalued by 50%. Good business and Co. really seems to be gearing up for high performance in 2010. Most stocks go from serious undervalation to at least mild overvaluation in bear market rallies of this nature. MPW still undervalued and has earnings. Should be worth at least 7-8 a share. Not a particularly volatile stock though. PNSN is OK, but it's run alot already and no longer the big value that it was. Could go higher and technical indications are good, but at this point its fairly valued so I won't chase it , except maybe for a nimble day trade on the right day. SKS I'm not inclined to fool with until it drops back down some. Tangible book is $6.82, but Co is losing money by the pound still. I'd keep on watch, not chase it, and re buy when it corrects some of the advance. NM still looks good to me. Not the value it was before, but a few positives are that several big investors have taken sizable positions including FMR ( Fidelity). ALY looks like a good value at these levels and I may look for a spot. OCNF Annual shareholder meeting soon, so hopefully we'll know a little more about what's going on there. Market probably goes up monday, but I feel like we are getting closer to a correction of substance and therefore maybe best not to chase things to much here. The dip is the time to focus on the buys in the value stocks. Even if they run up a little more, I think we still need to be careful and should not abandon that stance to chase a hyped up market.