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To: LordDarley who wrote (9825)10/27/1997 7:18:00 PM
From: James A. Shankland  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
We are in for a very long haul before people regain confidence in stocks, even at today's closing levels. Too many want out, if prices recover. That's a very bad sign. And I doubt there is that much cash left on the sidelines.

I'm not so sure about that. I think the notion that stocks are a great place to put money long-term, short-term swings notwithstanding -- not an entirely irrational point of view, by the way -- is now pretty thoroughly etched into the national psyche. I'll bet that for every person who's frantically trying to figure out how to get the 401(k) stash out of stocks and into bonds now, 8 are figuring, "Sit tight and don't be a sucker," or "Where do I scrape up the cash to pick up some bargains?"

No, it won't keep going up at 20% per year, but I also don't see an obvious, imminent end to the economic boom that has fueled the great stock runup. Are the markets at inflated levels? It's a matter of opinion, of course, but they're certainly less inflated now than they were 24 hours ago.



To: LordDarley who wrote (9825)10/28/1997 10:44:00 PM
From: Zoltan!  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
>>Does my recent scepticism about 20% sure gainers, expressed mainly for the
benefit of younger investors on this board, still raise eyebrows in Idaho?

We are in for a very long haul before people regain confidence in stocks, even at
today's closing levels. Too many want out, if prices recover. That's a very bad sign. And I doubt there is that much cash left on the sidelines. It's nothing to do with Hong Kong. It's just common sense when markets are at inflated levels.


Gee, thanks for that allusion. The attack on HK was the precipitate. And it has been a long, long haul. Thankfully that's over! Indeed.

I'd comment further but that might be premature, almost as yours almost certainly will have been proven to be.

Actually, all kidding aside. I would actually not be surprised if we retraced today's lows. But to paraphrase MS, it has been a good thing - training people to be investors and not to be scared out of the market by Cassandras and worse.

In retrospect we most likely shall see a comparative few wanted out. As we shall most likely see that they were had.

Regards