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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (202728)	5/16/2009 11:04:03 PM
From: bentway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Am I alone in thinking you technical guys are just the phrenologists of the current age? victorianweb.org

To: Dan3 who wrote (202728)	5/16/2009 11:19:01 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

No, it's a valid pattern to watch out for here. We now have a left shoulder and (lower) head, and we've defined a clear neckline. If this is to be a new bull market, we should now form up the right shoulder with a retest of the left shoulder levels around 750. If the market bounces sharply there, and then takes out the resistance at 940, it would complete an inverse H&S projecting toward 1200. Despite my bearishness long-term, if such a scenario were to unfold, I'm afraid I would have to respect it. I might even go net long for a little while. However, my expectation is that we pull back to 750, bounce a meager amount, and that bottom fails within a couple of weeks. That would set up a retest of the March lows, and clearly violate any possible inverse H&S. Either way, it's too early to use this pattern to much advantage, except to point out that it would be entirely within the context of EITHER the bull or the bear case to pull back from the present 875 down to 750. And 125 SPX points is nothing to sneeze at. BC