efforts Russia took to halt depopulation falls short of the mark. As the decline of Russia’s population accelerates, the country is set to face overwhelming social and economic problems. But there are few if any obvious answers, prompting
Economic crisis sabotages Russia’s efforts to halt falling population
This online supplement is produced and published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta (Russia), which takes sole responsibility for the contents
Sergei Balashov
Last Updated: 3:51PM BST 19 May 2009
Russia’s efforts to put a brake on a falling population have been sabotaged by the economic crisis
Despite all the efforts Russia took to halt depopulation, the latest UN demographic report confirms that they have fallen short of the mark. As the decline of Russia’s population accelerates, the country is set to face overwhelming social and economic problems. But there are few if any obvious answers, prompting some policymakers to reach for ever more desperate solutions.
The United Nations’ report on human resources development in Russia offered gloomy forecasts for Russia’s population, which the report claimed would decline by some 26m to 116m by 2050. The UN report has also warned that the rapid depopulation will bring dire economic consequences.
Russia has lost more than 12m people since depopulation started in 1992. This trend currently shows no signs of slowing down, and Russia will continue to lose people – the only question is: how quickly? An expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences Anatoly Vishnevsky painted an even gloomier picture, predicting a population of 98m for Russia in 2050.
What is worse is that the problem affects Russia’s least populated and underdeveloped territories, particularly regions in the Far East and Siberia. Accounting for 36pc of Russia’s territory, the Far East is home to just 6.8m people. The Russian Committee for Statistics predicts that both Siberia and the Far East will each lose 11pc of population by 2025, while the number of central Russian inhabitants will go down by only 3pc.
Even more troubling is that the number of able-bodied adults is declining faster than any other demographic category. This group is expected to absorb the bulk of the losses, declining by 14m by 2025. According to the RBC daily, in 16 years every 1,000 employed Russians are going to be providing for some 800 dependents.
Due to the recent economic growth, these negative trends seemed to be slowly reversing over the past few years. Birth rates rose modestly thanks to increased stability, and the country became more appealing to foreign workers. Immigration was seen as a possible solution to Russia’s demographic problem, complementing the government’s increased efforts to boost birth rates and improve healthcare to fight high mortality. In 2007, there were more than 1.7m foreign workers in the country, a significant increase from a little over 1m in 2006.
But then the financial crisis kicked in, greatly affecting the flow of labour into the country. The Federal Migration Service has already stated that labour migration declined by 27pc in the first quarter of this year. But despite the fact that it helped bring almost 6m people to the country, some experts believe that the role of migrants in combating depopulation is dubious.
“There are two takes on migration: the first notion is that migrants will ruin the country,” said Sergei Ermakov, the head of the demographic programmes department at the Institute for Demography, Migration and Regional Development. “Everyone is afraid that Russia will get taken over by the Chinese, but that’s not going to happen. What is going to happen is that the only people to come here will be Caucasians and Middle Asians. But they will come and go; they will not assimilate simply because everything is too foreign for them over here.
“The second notion is that migrants will save us, but that’s also not true. State programmes to encourage Russians living outside of the country to move back have failed miserably and very few people are returning. You get maybe 10,000 per year via these programmes.”
However, migration was not seen as the only way out of the demographic quagmire. In 2006 the government introduced benefits for large families. Starting in 2007, every woman bearing a second or any consecutive child could get maternity payments, a sum that has been gradually growing every year to more than $11,000 at its peak in mid-2008.
However, this money came with a few strings attached. It could only be spent on the child’s education, paying off a mortgage or the mother’s pension. The ruling United Russia party has been particularly proud of this initiative, crediting then-president Vladimir Putin with inventing this attempt to boost birth rates.
However, the UN experts who prepared disagree, claiming that only 1pc of women who recently had children ascribed their decision to the financial benefits. This is because the problem of educational expenses does not come up until the child turns 16 or 17, the age at which Russians usually graduate from high school and head to higher educational institutions.
Living conditions could also hardly be improved with this money, as even in post-crisis Moscow property costs more than $4,000 per square metre, plus raging inflation has already eaten up a good portion of the maternity bonus. Today, this sum amounts to less than $9,000.
A woman can also only claim the money for one child, no matter how many she has after bearing the first one. Even if this maternity capital worked, it still wouldn't be enough to recompense for the population losses.
“Having two children won’t do it. They have to introduce the same benefits for the third, fourth, and so on,” said Ermakov. “Don’t forget that before you can send your kid to a university, you have to somehow raise them for 16 or 17 years. Yet neither the mother nor the child can spend the money they receive on healthcare.”
EU countries spend about 2.2pc-2.4pc of the GDP to support large families, while in Russia state aid amounts to roughly 1pc.
The one factor that should not be ignored is that the people’s attitude is also changing. Education and careers are the priorities now, and starting a family is often on the backburner, for women as much as for men. Various proposals have been championed to combat people’s unwillingness to have more children.
Alexander Chuev, a State Duma deputy from the Just Russia party, has been campaigning for a reinstitution of the Soviet small-family tax, a 6pc income tax imposed on childless single men and married women, as well as couples that did not have children after one year of marriage.
“The public should show more love for children, families with two or more children should get the most favourable treatment in this country,” said Evgeny Yuriev, the president of the ATON Capital Group and an expert on Russia’s demographics. “The government should adopt this attitude and act accordingly. The goal here is to change this mindset.”
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