Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (6178)	10/28/1997 10:02:00 AM
From: TEDennis	Respond to of 9285

Jon: Re: October, 2007 ... By that time, the Y2K stocks should have returned to their 'normal' valuation. Heck, there won't be anything to short. TED

To: Jon Tara who wrote (6178)	10/29/1997 5:17:00 PM
From: edgedirect	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

SMOD has "Short" written all over it. Posted this over on John G's high flier short thread. Thought you all might be interested... SMOD was a high flier until 10/10 when it started breaking down from a high of 89.25. It tried to establish it's first base in a 5 day rectangle from 10/17 to 10/23 between 55 and 61. It failed and fell as low as 35 Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon it was at 51 and starting to look real nice in this shorter's eyes. Point #1 Today it gapped open to 55 5/8...and that was the high of the day. Where did it run into resistance? Right at the bottom of the 5 day base mentioned above. More importantly, it tried to penetrate 55 again at 11am and one more time at 3pm and failed both times. That's when I shorted it at 54. Point #2 The gap will be filled. Easy money if that's where you want to cover. Point#3 Broken down high fliers trying to rebound are absolutely my favorite kind of short because they are so damned dependable. I have NEVER seen a stock that has crashed like this rally back up through its overhead moving averages / resistance on the first rally and hold. Never. Currently, the 20 day MA is at 61 and change. I would hold even if it rallied to that point...which I highly doubt because... Point #4 The market told the world today that it is going to be retesting the lows of Monday and Tuesday...and doing it soon. How do I know that? The Dow at one point today came within about 50 points of the "crash" starting level of Monday morning. For all intents and purposes the retracement and rally are through for now. For the rest of the day, the Dow, Naz, OEX gave up all of this mornings gains and basically finished unchanged. But here's the key...they finished unchanged on GIGANTIC volume (again). Serious distribution going on here folks. Everyone was so impressed yesterday with the 1 billion + shares traded and the "record" gain. I wasn't. On the highest volume day in the stock market's history, the indexes were unable to recoup the entire loss from Monday. That told me some serious selling was going on as well. Today confirmed this. The market will retest the bottom. There is little doubt in my mind about that. Now, back to SMOD: The traders who picked this stock up yesterday will be taking profits soon and the rout will be on imho. I'm looking for an exit point in the low 40s in quick order. To be honest, I think you can short just about anything over the next couple of days and be a winner. SMOD is just one where I really really like the chart. And it's real easy to find the shares to short...surprisingly, the short interest on this stock is practically nothing. Good luck all, Edge