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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (207491)	6/18/2009 8:00:45 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

Which parts suppliers are in your targeting radar? I've got a small position against ARM, which I saw received an upgrade to "buy" from our buddies at Government Sachs. I see the analyst also mentioned BWA FDML and JCI, an old favorite. marketwatch.com Just checked the major holders for ARM. You've got to be fcuking kidding me: finance.yahoo.com GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 5,859,299 7.92%< $4,628,846 31-Mar-09 DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS INC 5,087,421 6.88 $4,019,062 31-Mar-09 GLENVIEW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 4,919,770 6.65 $3,886,618 31-Mar-09 Glenhill Advisors LLC 4,130,000 5.58 $3,262,700 31-Mar-09 Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd 3,109,917 4.20 $2,456,834 31-Mar-09 VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE) 2,562,305 3.46 $2,024,220 31-Mar-09 FMR LLC 2,319,253 3.13 $1,832,209 31-Mar-09 STATE STREET CORPORATION 1,446,738 1.96 $1,142,923 31-Mar-09 OPPENHEIMER FUNDS, INC. 1,312,963 1.77 $1,037,240 31-Mar-09 LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT 1,291,550 1.75 $1,020,324 Could it be any more blatant than that? EDIT: one more thing - given their debt vs. cash on hand, there's no chance that ARM is going to retire their debt out of their cash balance. finance.yahoo.com The green shoots crowd seems to think auto sales are going to come bouncing back now that the recession is over. Methinks they're in for one nasty surprise... `BC

To: ChanceIs who wrote (207491)	6/18/2009 8:12:56 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

Wow, it's not good for the Meatball to be weakening like that. It bounced a fair bit into the close; it'll be interesting to see if it can recover that $12.50 level. If it can't, the dark side will beckon ever more loudly. `BC

To: ChanceIs who wrote (207491)	6/18/2009 8:19:13 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

It's a rare pleasure to find those setups where you go "gee, if A happens, then security X goes down, but if A doesn't happen, security X goes down as well." I agree that if the recovery were to continue, bond yields would keep rising. And if Bernanke keeps monetizing, bond yields will also rise. However, I think that Bernanke knows better than to monetize much more. It's completely self-defeating, and he knows it. The market has called his bluff. Thus, I come to a different conclusion about TBT. Bernanke is boxed and can't afford to buy up much for paper since it would only end up boosting rates further. And the green shoots crowd has been smoking something. I think the inflation scare will soon wane, as we revisit the nemesis of deleveraging: deflation. `BC

To: ChanceIs who wrote (207491)	6/22/2009 3:21:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Long TBT has got to be one of the best risk/reward opportunities out there right now. that is the market consensus, so it is discounted at best and likely wrong. aside from the fact that EVERYONE is b*rish on USTs (bullish), here are some other reasons to be bullish: risk assets are going to get hammered and go down another 50 percent. * commodities and commodity currencies are going to get hammered. * USTs and USD will be flight to safety (it is already happening). * CPI negative, real yield on long bond is extremely high--really at unsustainable levels given how much debt is in system. these real yields by themselves will cause economy to crsh. green shoots are a big fat lie. economy is going into a toilet near you.