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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (8247)	10/28/1997 4:39:00 PM
From: kahunabear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Still down over 200 points from Friday. Market psychology is shifting back and forth like a yo-yo. Certainly not stable. Seems dangerous to me. I am steering clear. Do you think everything is just fine and dandy from here and we go to new highs ? I don't. Liquidity and earnings seem vulnerable and the markets are still priced based on perfection. WS

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (8247)	10/28/1997 5:23:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Dear Latif,last night and this morning, Bonni and Bill had a complete different view of the market to my. I was looking for a strong reflex rally and they anticipated a further slide to the downside. I did not rubb any swords for that. I courteosly think that your personal attacs in your response in this post are unprofesional and unwarented. Thank you HAim

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (8247)	10/29/1997 9:38:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Iqbal--with all due respect, I think that you are premature in declaring victory. I have never espoused the philosophy of the Kahunites conviction that the market is due to collapse. But to interpret yesterday's bounce in the US and overseas market as vindication for your position prior to the decline seems premature. You have always said that you follow what the markets say--so what are the markets really saying at this point? We saw a 13% water-fall type decline in the US markets and a disastrous decline in the SE Asia. I think we need a week or two to know where things are really headed. Regards

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (8247)	10/29/1997 11:11:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Welcome to a rational DOW Ike, this where I keep disagreeing with you the most. If one makes money by being long on the market, that's great. Rational or irrational doesn't matter. Having said that - can you explain these factors: 1) why caterpillar is forcasting weakness ahead? 2) why McDonald is unable to meet the profit forecasts and not confident that it will for the near future. 3) why Sears is forecasting weaker earnings due to bad-debt write-offs and such. 4) why Boeing, with huge order backlog, is not able to deliver even at the peak of the cycle? Can you confidently say Malaysian Airlines or Indonesian airlines will not cancell orders to Boeing due to the turmoil in their countries? If this the best Boeing can do in boom times, what happens to them during a bust? 5) why Coca-Cola faltered in delivering a sustained growth in earnings after an accounting method change forced them not to include one-time gains in earnings? 6) we have gone over IBM's falling book value (-2%), increasing liabilities (+5%) And the ability to service the debt TODAY is not a logical explanation for the 100% rise in stock price in the last one year. 7) why Eastman Kodak has fallen on its face for 4 quarters in a row and failed to deliver even in this booming economy? 8) why the chemical giant Union Carbide failed to deliver and forecast another gloomy quarter? 9) why International Papers profits are in decline over the last year, (mind you this was a boom year) 10) why Hewlett Paccard missed the estimates for 5 quarters in a row and the stock continues to trade much higher than it was a year ago? All these were DOW stocks. And the list comprises 1/3rd of the DOW. The rest of them are not that sound either. MRK is facing stiff competition, PG has had aneamic growth, JNJ has signle digit growth. You are saying this a rational DOW. No way. What I am saying is that this is a stock mania and if you happen to make money by going with the trend, good for you. But, saying that the it is "rational market" amounts to self-delusion. FYI, earlier this year I made money on buying some calls on Gateway even when I was saying it is a doomed company. In my mind I was clear, GTW will go higher because of some manic importance given to a stock split. I did not delude myself by saying GTW was a fundamentally sound company. -Mohan