Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (10873)	7/8/2009 11:16:41 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86356

Your battery cost assumptions are too high. Tesla is offering a prepaid replacement batter pack for $12K. Lutz of the VOLT has said each VOLT factors in the battery replacement, at a cost of $10K. So for today's assumptions, I'd use $12K for battery replacement. But in 10 years, that cost is likely to be half of that thanks to technology improvements and economies of scale. So if you want to split the difference, I'd use a $9K battery replacement cost assumption. At $9K, you'd break even on the battery, based on fuel savings within 4 years. However, all of this misses a very important point. Most people don't own cars longer than 7 years. So you are artificially burdening the electric car with a cost that has no equivalency in an ICE car. So to compare apples to apples, we'd have to look at the average # of years people own cars. If you use the 7 year assumption, then the battery replacement cost is irrelevant and EVs win the cost/benefit comparison hands down. Alternatively, if you factor in the battery replacement for the total vehicle useful life of 20 years, you'd also have to factor in the costs of a new IC engine for the ICE car as well as all the massive amounts of engine and other car engine component parts that occurs in ICE cars after the 10 year mark. The other thing you are not figuring is the fact that EVs have far fewer moving parts and maintenance is far cheaper as a result. That would equate to an additional few hundred dollars per year in savings. In short, you analysis is not an apples to apples comparison and is skewed in favor of ICE cars.