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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (30518)	7/8/2009 7:00:07 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

The second rec came from me, in case you were wondering. I've given some additional thought to the SI model after posting my trailer in #msg-25759002 several days ago. Similar thoughts came to me when I sent you a PM shortly after, which I'll play back here for the benefit of others, edited ever so slightly: -- Here's an uncanny coincidence for you to consider. I'm not sure the new-old-new owners of SI understand just what kind of assets are contained within the archives here. On the Gilder board today, one of the mavens there posted this item from Light Reading: In-Building Opportunities for VDSL2 July 1, 2009 lightreading.com; -- My reply: [My usual collegial-like greeting] Contrast this article with a discussion I had thirteen years ago, in 1996, with Dr. George Hawley of Bellcore Dr. Loop fame. I used the World Trade Center, at the time, to serve as a backdrop for a VDSL vs. ADSL vs. straightaway IEEE Ethernet comparison (even mentioned SMDS). The good doctor, incidentally, went on to found DiamondLane Communications, a DSLAM company, subsequent to this discussion. DLC was eventually acquired by Nokia, IIRC. Message 517974 Message 521165 As you've no doubt sensed by now, if you've read the links above, my tune hasn't changed very much in some respects. [ ... ] [P]erusing the early years of writings on SI's Last Mile Technologies Forum may reveal some strikingly prescient tidbits, if you're so inclined. And for good reasons. It was a forum that was crawling with bleeding edge pioneers and talented veterans alike, and not just a few CEOs of leading edge companies at the time. I can still recall getting my butt kicked there, in a figurative sort of way, prior to realizing that I wasn't dealing with lay folk. In retrospect I saw before long how I might have appeared condescending by attempting to be instructive, which was perceived as preaching, to what I'd later find out were the industry's experts. A good learning experience during my early days on the "open net" -- i.e., away from the safety of knowing who was who on the Compuserve Telecom Forum, to be sure. FAC ------

To: ftth who wrote (30518)	7/8/2009 7:14:00 PM
From: axial	Respond to of 46821

Right on. "company execs didn't avoid internet forums the way they do today." We used to get some marvelous contributions, here and on Last Mile. "Now with the fog of blogs and a thousand other new e-organisms discussing tech, there probably isn't a single one that has 1% mindshare, and SI is probably in the bottom decile." Seems a reasonable guesstimate. Looking back 15 years, many of us were looking for the Next Big Thing in technology. Big Things came, but what also came was fragmentation. Those who were expecting consolidation around industry behemoths were disappointed. Plus, one of the Internet's strengths is as a medium for individuation. People naturally move to preferred destinations, and there are so many that covering them all is impossible. [Thoughts about "churn" obtrude here]. Concurrently, we've seen a trend to fragmentation - in destinations, on the 'net and off. Traditional mass media are being bled by the 'net, and public opinions aren't being shaped the way they once were. In parallel, there's market fragmentation in devices, in OSes, in standards-based and proprietary systems. Players like Intel, Google, Microsoft and Amazon are in the minority in the sense that a company can quickly capture and hold a large market share in any sector. Yes, it happens; no, it's not the norm. More fragmentation and individuation; less uniformity and coherence. Interesting times. SI now has a lot of competition, but at least the 'net provides us with a way to easily link to thoughts written elsewhere, to cross-pollinate with what we think might be valid or interesting. Jim