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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (44845)	7/25/2009 11:29:30 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

The chart below compares the Dow from the 1920's through the late 1930's to that of the Nasdaq from the 1990's through 2009. As you can see these two charts are nearly a carbon copy of each other. That is an eerie and astonishing comparison!

To: Return to Sender who wrote (44845)	7/26/2009 1:33:25 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95546

July 24, 2009, 3:42 pm Broadcom: JMP Cuts on Pricing Worries, Sluggish Margins Posted by Tiernan Ray Shares of chip maker Broadcom (BRCM) fell in after-hours trading last night and are down again today despite the fact that the company yesterday exceeded Street expectations for its Q2 and forecast above estimates for the current quarter. A note from JMP Research’s Alax Gauna sums up the bear case for the stock. Gauna writes today that Broadcom’s beat was aided by a $65.3 million payment from Qualcomm (QCOM) as a result of a settlement reached between the two back in April. Excluding that payment, Broadcom’s gross profit and its EPS missed Gauna’s estimate. What’s more, gross profit of 46.3% fell short of management’s forecast for a 25 to 50 percentage point increase in gross profit, writes Gauana. Longer term, Gauna is concerned that the product categories where Broadcom sees the most strength — chips for Bluetooth, broadband access, and enterprise computer networking — are highly subject to price competition. He notes, too, that cuts to options grants in the R&D line item are being netted out by increases in options expense in the SG&A line item, which hinders operating profit margings. Hence, his estimate for next year goes from $4.17 billion in sales to $4.5 billion, but his EPS estimate goes from $1.25 to $1.15. He cut the stock from “Market Perform” to “Market Underperform” and writes that the stock is worth $25.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (44845)	7/27/2009 12:00:36 AM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

I continue to hang my hat in the camp that suggests too many people are being left behind with this rise in the markets. If the equity markets are to breakdown to new lows from here, it lets everyone on the sidelines have one more chance to get back in at better prices. We'll have plenty of tough times ahead and corrections from going too far, too fast. That being said, I think looking for another massive move down at this point in time could be a bit of a fools game. The final low seen in the last Dow chart in your post was early 1942. Things looked pretty bleak at that moment in time. Japan had expanded into most of the Pacific and was well on their way into SE Asia. Germany was steamrolling Europe. No way we can look at today's global environment and make a correlation to that period in our past. When looking at the last 2 charts in your post, I would caution anyone from trying to draw a direct comparison. The I-label in the Dow chart was reached in 1938, right before the start of WWII. While the worldwide geopolitical environment isn't that pretty in this day and age, I think that its unlikely that we'll have war on such a massive, global scale during the next 4 or 5 years. I shutter to think about the possibilities if I am wrong about this issue!!! There are plenty of reasons to be cautious and there will be excellent chances for the market to "take profits" going forward. But you can count me in the camp that says you may have to wait a very, very long time before we see new lows in the indexes. I think chances are far greater that we have seen the lows from this latest bear market period. If (and when) I get ready to move my hat into the "new lows are on their way" camp, I'll be sure to "alert the media"! <vbg>. jmo TO