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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BWAC who wrote (216846)8/21/2009 8:22:05 PM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Yes, the HFT financial world has completely disconnected from the real world. In prior cycles, that was OK, because the swings in the market were capable of creating shifts in the real economy. However, in a post-peak credit bubble world, I just don't see that tail-wagging-the-dog relationship able to hold true for this cycle. Financial market buoyancy probably won't translate into nearly the same degree of economic stimulus as the typical post-war cycle. And I'm almost certain the credit bubble will continue to gradually fold in upon itself. While there are certainly plenty of examples of huge bear market rallies like this one, I don't know of any examples of credit bubbles reflating once they've hit peak.

Had lunch with a friend who pointed out that there has been a succession of bubbles that are all epiphenomena of the larger credit bubble: first tech stocks, then real estate, then finance stocks, then bonds. With each round, the bubble is transferred from one asset class to the next. With each round, the debt grows as the financing gets ever more creative, first through lower rates, then easier terms, then public guarantees. The final chapter is the attempted transfer of the bubble from the private sector to the public sector, going on now, which is the lower bound on debt service as public debt is the "safest" form. However, that transfer depends upon a willing and able buyer for the avalanche of treasury bonds. If the appetite is not there, interest rates will soar, and the economy is then toast no matter what anyone tries to do.

The $64 question is which will happen first: will interest rates soar and lead to economic failure, or will the economy breaking under its own weight cause a "flight to safety" that swamps out the effect of government debt issuance? My guess is "B" - most of the government debt isn't new debt - it reflects the transfer of debt from the private sector to the public sector, which minimizes its inflationary potential. Meanwhile, the deflationary tide in the private sector continues to ebb.

`BC