placing all comments in context, i am now at the following allocation on net asset basis:
cash 6.5%
gold, platinum, paper gold 32.5%
bonds 3%
real estate 42%
stocks 16%
i effectively do not have debt, and above allocation represents a recent shift from cash to hk industrial (around hk$ 900 - hk$ 1,800 psft for industrial in old airport area and wang chuk hang area (near aberdeen tunnel and ocean park) and residential real estate (hk$ 16,000 psft, stanley), raising real estate from 28% to current 42% allocation on net asset value. i look at the recent record prices of hk$ 75k psft with amusement, as one would viewing a practical gag.
my thinking is that china / hk will continue to develop / redevelop, and values should rise, with additional possibility that a money-printing bubble may well be, especially given what i believe, perhaps wrongly, that interest rate will stay low on global basis, and that the usdollar / hkdollar may well devalue against other major currencies as well as, on 3-5 year horizon, devalue against hkdollar.
in other words, cash may be trash, certainly earning nothing with local banks offering from 0.01 to 0.0001% interest on depost on just about all currencies, and given all the legislative developments in oecd nations and usa, hong kong's old style british common law and freedoms are becoming more attractive than ever, even to the wealthy of the rich nations, never mind to the wealthy of mainland china.
whether i am right or wrong, i believe it is imperative one owns one's own home and not be at the mercy of the rental market. whether one shhould buy investment property is a secondary decision.
i continue to be negative of the usa share and property markets, as well as direction of its politics, monetary and fiscal policies, etc etc.
in the mean time we are settling into the new season in hong kong:
- erita is attending a new school for her transition year (the year before primary one), and appreciating her new classmates, school uniform, school bus ride, teachers, and classes
although her mom, meaning my wife, has recently just made arrangement for kidddie limo service for morning pickup and schhool bus for afternoon return so as to strike a balance between more sleep and sound budget. i kept my mouth shut so as to not attract attention on any number of my infractions ;0/
erita is being taught 70% in mandarin chinese and 30% in english, for every subjects, and each class has two teachers, each a native speaker of the languages. each class's teaching and reading in in both languages. erita is already fluent in both languages but feels more comfortable in using english. the school will flip to 70% english and 30% mandarin starting year 4;
she is fond of her martial arts class at school, as well as her "go" game tutoring this past summer, and once per week, ballet, gymnastics, and swimming. all good :0)
- corporate consulting work is ... how do i say ... non-existent, and so i am busying myself on (i) coal biz, which may well terminate after the contract year due to coal buyer reorganization / new owner, but, no matter, time to move on, (ii) some private equity ventures to the extent my help is needed or desired as pro-bono cfo, (iii) real estate clubbing where we are fully invested and so i hope to start a bigger company around year end especially as there seem to be many looking to engage with political freedom and economic liberty, and (iv) am also tentatively working on sourcing l.e.d. lighting from china to american continent (in the form of light tubes to replace fluorescent light tubes with commercial and institutional users), and (v) a magnetite resource in philippines looking for mainland chinese investors.
dunno, seems wise to trim sails, look for trails, and generally be astutely agile and wisely motionless all at the same time.
- we will take a vacation with my extended family as well as my swiss-german friends rudulf and sisu and their two little kids (son paul is same age as my daughter and they are best friends) in thailand starting this coming saturday - this has now been a 5 year annual tradition - and as usual, i am alert to the possibility of market inflection point while i am supposed to relax - for such had happened often enough, or just about always so it seems to me.
so, all considered, we are ok, even as the financial volatility and economic uncertainty still are. i figure we will go like this for 7-15 years, and then a true crisis (one centered around usa and its dollar) will end the wait.
my venezuelan cousin and his partner just completed first visit to asia, china, hong kong, spent one month in hk attending trade shows and such, and established many purchasing leads for their distribution biz. they will return early next year to redomicile their trading biz (now in venezuela, columbia and florida) to HK.
i know about 4-5 n.american and european money managers redomiciling their business to hk. bullish on hk.
of course, there exist substantial danger that a follow-on commercial real estate crisis centered around the usa would force its officialdom into an even more enhanced money printing program, and if so, the usd could well crash and usa interest rate (to which hkd is now tied) could rise sharply, cratering all assets supported by debt, including hk real estate.
and so i am also heavy on gold, platinum, gold and silver mining shares, and am now setup to engage with paper silver within the old edition british common law domain that is adequately under the physical protection of the guardians of true capitalism, the people's liberation army and particular its second artillery corp with all their new rockets :0)
there has been an interesting recent development, the bank of china has established a fund / investment management company within the legal jurisdiction of the swiss, guarded by its ancient militia even as its bank secrecy code is shot full of holes, and back-stopped by the same people's liberation army, at least in spirit.
if not for china, freedom on this planet would be extinguished, as far as i can see. the world is shaping up to be more interesting than ever, all to the better, so as to shorten the eventual darkest interregnum, hopefully.
so, yes, gold, silver, platinum, and if at all possible, the rare earths and space-age metals on dips (i must first learn the so many names of elements that are so few in tons on this planet) - have eyes on sqm finance.yahoo.com and so i am at once fearful of any sort of asset correction / consolidation / drubbing / slamming, and hopeful for same - very conflicted ;0/
cheers, tj |
