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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (24395)	10/30/1997 2:57:00 PM
From: Joss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Tom, I doubt that after a fall in currency in say SEA, the ratios of goods imported to those exported will stay constant. If imports to the us go up due to cheaper prices, while exports are reduced due to higher "real" prices, the BOT could get worse. Steve

To: Thomas M. who wrote (24395)	10/30/1997 4:25:00 PM
From: HB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Our exports are more expensive to Asian consumers, now. So, we export less to them (in unit terms). We also import more (again, in unit terms). In the short term, the value of our imports may drop, but over the long term, as a shift to foreign suppliers take place (or even over the short term, if demand for imports is elastic enough), the dollar value of our imports is likely to rise. So both effects are likely, over the medium term, to reduce aggregate demand for US goods, and have a deflationary & recession- inducing effect on our economy. IMO anyway. Cheers, Howard I am considering selling some of my Japan/Asia holdings, painful though it is to lose money on them. I have a return year-to-date of over 30% (even at todays prices) despite this Asian exposure, and I'm already pretty heavily in cash; there isn't that much left to sell. Guess I'm one of them window-dressers. I think it will make my unlimited partner happy if I hang onto this gain. My core holding in SFAM finally got sold, a third at 57 and 2/3 at 38.5. Last half of SOA went at 16 3/4. Bought a third of CRF at 12 3/8, sold remaining halves of NRGN @ 20, LGND @ 14 7/8. With Robertson-Stephens in early Dec., I will look to get back into LGND soon, maybe NRGN too. Middle third of CEGE out at 8 5/8; last half of SPTR out at 13 1/8 (optical fiber co.). Did nothing today. P/E 15-17 on S&P may well be doable soon, although I think continued bouncing around until stocks grow into a more reasonable valuation is the likely scenario. But, we now have a "shock" to the world economy (someone may start eating some of Goldilocks' porridge soon!), in the form of the Asian devaluations and recession, and if earnings growth slows here as a result of global slowdown, P/E 15-17 on reduced earnings could be pretty grim. I think I will set up some GTC orders for first/2nd thirds on some of these companies, and try to ignore the market for awhile (yeah, right!). Howard