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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (125039)	10/19/2009 2:50:36 PM
From: Umunhum	21 Recommendations Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 206151

Welcome back, it's been awhile since you've posted I really haven't had anything worthwhile to contribute. I went from "I can't believe prices are this low, we can't go lower" to "I have to start selling otherwise I'm going to get margin calls" to "I have to sell more otherwise I'm going to be wiped out" to "that's it, I'm not selling any more. I will go down with this ship, I don't care." In retrospect, I was a complete fool. I thought peak oil or that the marginal cost of producing oil at $80 - $90 would save me. I got crushed in 1998 and must have read every Matt Simmon's speech 5 times. I distinctly remember one in which he said that the cost to produce oil for the best of the class producers was above $18 despite the price of oil going down to $9. If it happened once, surely it could happen again. I don't know why I thought $40 oil was impossible when I lived through a historical precedent. Especially when I believed we were in a recession long before the government admitted it. That said, now its obvious that anything can happen short term. Long term (past 2012), the supply and demand numbers for oil simply don't work. It is only a matter of time before the price of oil takes out $100. I believe SU will be the XOM of the 21st century. Zebra - I wouldn't touch UNG because of the roll degradation. I also have no interest in CHK. I believe they are puffing up their numbers but you would be fighting both escalating energy prices and a devaluing dollar.