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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TAPDOG who wrote (6349)	10/31/1997 11:01:00 AM
From: Anaxagoras	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

<<My unscientific survey shows that most men much prefer taking a pill to inserting something in the tip of the penis. My question, then , is what do you think of Zona.>> If I may butt in here.... :-) I've been long both at various times, and short VVUS at various times as well. Although you are of course correct that men would prefer an oral method rather than up the ol' urethra, there are many other things to consider, eg. the advantages of local vs. systemic treatment being one of the more important. But even giving a perfect case scenario for PFE, the etiologies addressed by MUSE and Viagra while overlapping to a degree, are still somewhat different. MUSE is more appropriate for moderate to severe ED while Viagra is more of an "errection enhancer"- in other words in a worst case scenario for Vivus, it will still have a sizable niche market to address (and right now it's the best alternative available, and will contnue to be so for some time as it continues to bring in tons of cash- I'm heavily long the stock at the moment, FWIW). And FWIW, I'm not yet convinced that we should grant too rosy picture to the oral camps yet. Which brings me to ZONA- I rode that up for a while but became highly concerned when PFE beat them in the race for filing an NDA- and even though ZONA-ites will try to dismiss this as a valid concern, I haven't been pleased with the length of time that it's taken to announce a marketing partner- ZONA is the underdog with respect to the oral route (although it's a very interesting company with respect to its other research); anyway, they needed to get things done pronto and they haven't, IMO. Since the efficacy of their product (Zomax) is weaker than Viagra (although the side effect profile seems to be superior) they needed to take advantage of every opportunity in order to have success, and they haven't, IMO, sad to say. And added in to all the mix is that neither PFE nor ZONA has published their research in any peer reviewed journal, to my knowledge, so there is just too much risk at the current price of ZONA right now- that's not to say I wouldn't buy it were it to go lower again- but right now it may, I stress may, be a short to consider. Anaxagoras

To: TAPDOG who wrote (6349)	10/31/1997 5:01:00 PM
From: Franco Battista	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

I am only as knowledgeable as the research I've done to date. Most of that rersearch stemmed from having shorted vvus earlier this year. What I know about the pill is that it is not nearly as effective as the vvus product. There is also great fear that a pill solution would have side effects. The beauty of the vvus product is that there are no risks of side effects and it works for 90% of users. The pill seems to work mostly for people with mild cases of dysfunction and will not be recommended to anyone who is already on certain types of medication. I hope this helps.