Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (10133)	10/31/1997 11:00:00 AM
From: derek cao	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>Bears are not always short...they could be hanging out on the sidelines >looking for an opportunity to add to their positions. At least this bear is. really? a guy on the sidelines spend more than 1 year on this thread posting various bearish comments. You either have too much time on hand and try to do some good for all us or you did not tell the truth. regards derek

To: davesd who wrote (10133)	10/31/1997 11:25:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, Regardless of the BULLS "persistence" that AMAT will eventually continue its' upward growth trend, I side with your short term prospects for the stock. Yes, it will maintain its current value and may increase in value around earnings week for a short while, however, their is pressure on the chip producers to increase margins and profitability with their current investment in equipment. The best way for them to increase margins/profits is to cut back on capital spending for a limited time, (3-9 months)the exception will be to add a few critical pieces of equipment to improve device performance. It is normal, as technology transitions occur, for fabs to recoup their investment in the current equipment set to maximize the gain or return on their investment. Many fabs are transitioning to 0.25uM production and have already purchased the equipment necessary to perform at this feature size. Now they need to focus on improving yields and maximizing production with their "newest" equipment set before setting out to move forward. This is a period of consolidation and improvement before investing in the next generation of equipment and process enhancing technology. The profits from this current technology is what will fund the capital growth expansion requirements for the next generation of fabs and equipment. I expect "delays" in large equipment orders and announcements of further fab push outs over the next several months from many chip manufacturers, after all the fabs that were being built last year and this year are just starting to come on-line and just ramping up their production capability. They need to establish profitability and predictability of their new business before expanding again. The current expansion has already taken place, now they need to make everything run like a well tuned car to compete in the manufacturing "race" against the competition. No sense putting in a new motor in the middle of the race, it takes to much time and resources to get it tuned up while the competition is firing on all cylinders. The issue is when will the next race start and what kind of engine will you need to compete in it, and when will it really be profitable to make the huge capital investment to compete? At this point I am like a minotaur of Greek legend, half bull, half man, but looking at the industry thru a bears eyes. I too am waiting for the best short term bottom to buy the stock at the lowest possible price, which will give me the maximum possible return when the stock returns to its upward trend again. Keep up the good work, there are many of us out here on the sidelines waiting for the best "opportunity" to fully re-invest in AMAT, you are not alone. Regards, BB