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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (45738)	11/1/2009 2:29:53 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95572

From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 30-Oct-09Last week we discussed the volatility in U.S. equity markets, and that not only continued this week it became more aggressive. But unlike the prior week's modest moves, the major averages closed sharply lower this week as the dollar rebounded against the other major currencies. The S&P 500 lost 4%. Once again the declines were broad-based as all ten sectors in the index ended lower, led by Materials (-7.1%) and Financials (-6.9%). The dollar was the biggest, if not the only, catalyst this week. In fact, the charts of the major indices are almost exact inverses of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A weak dollar benefits the economy as it boosts exports, and investors are trading stocks based on the moves in the currency. For example, equities attempted to rebound at the open Monday, but the attempt stalled and a spike higher in the DXY late that morning led to a spike lower in the major indices. The volatility really came through in the last three sessions of the week. A third day of gains in the DXY on Wednesday led to sharp declines in equities. Then a reversal in the greenback and modestly better-than-expected GDP figure on Thursday helped equities regain the prior day's declines. The Advance reading for third quarter GDP came in at 3.5%, its first gain in four quarters, slightly better than the 3.2% consensus. But those gains were short-lived as a resumption in the dollar rally on Friday led to the major indices making fresh week lows. Third quarter earnings season did continue this week, but there were fewer big names so they took a backseat. For the most part companies continued to beat on the bottom lines, but top line figures and guidance were mixed. Another rounds of longer-term Treasury auctions also took a back seat -- $123 billion in 5-year TIPS and 2-, 5- and 7-year Notes -- as they no longer seem to have as direct an influence on the equity markets. Looking ahead to next week, third quarter earnings season will wind down with even fewer big names on the calendar. The dollar will most likely remain in focus until the end of the week, when the always highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls figure is released for October. Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD % DJIA 9972.18 9712.73 -259.45 -2.6 10.7 Nasdaq 2154.47 2045.11 -109.36 -5.1 29.7 S&P 500 1079.60 1036.19 -43.41 -4.0 14.7 Russell 2000 600.86 562.77 -38.09 -6.3 12.7 9:20AM Taiwan Semi clarifies forecast given on co's Q3 call (TSM) 9.91 : At TSMC's third quarter investors' conference on October 29, TSMC Chairman Dr. Morris Chang commented that "For TSMC, we expect next year to be a record year." TSMC Spokesperson and Chief Financial Officer Ms. Lora Ho provides additional detail regarding this statement. "Setting a record year in 2010 is TSMC's internal target and should not be viewed as a financial forecast," said Ms. Ho. "What Chairman Chang has referred to as TSMC's profit record was the net profit set in 2006. However, he has also indicated internally that this profit goal will be adjusted by employee profit sharing expensing, which is currently 15% of net income. Using 2006 net income of NT$127 billion, the profit record that TSMC aims to break in 2010 will be NT$108 billion." 8:36AM Corning: Dow Corning reports 3Q09 consolidated net income of $184.3 vs. $218 mln year ago; revenue decreased 5.3% y/y to $1.41 bln (GLW) 15.14 : Dow Corning is a joint venture equally owned by The Dow Chemical Company (DOW) and Corning, Inc (GLW). Dow Corning states, "While we're still feeling the impact of the global economic recession, we were encouraged by a nearly 20 percent increase in third quarter sales compared to the second quarter. This was especially evident in our silicones segment, where Dow Corning's two-brand strategy delivered solid results. Sales increased in both specialized silicone materials marketed through the Dow Corning brand and in standard silicone products marketed through the XIAMETER brand."

To: Return to Sender who wrote (45738)	11/1/2009 8:50:06 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95572

Meanwhile as we have seen the past few years the action in the US Dollar (USD) has had a substantial affect on the market. Generally when the USD has rallied (points E to F) the S&P 500 has fallen (points G to H) and when the USD has fallen (points F to E) the S&P 500 has rallied (points H to G). For the past several months the USD has been in a downtrend however this week it rose above its longer term downward trend line (yellow line). The key to future action in the market may depend on what the USD does over the next several months. If the USD begins to rally strongly and reverse its previous downward trend then this would likely be bearish for the major averages. It is obvious looking at the charts that there has been an inverse correlation between the dollar and the market. I know I asked this a few weeks ago, but I'm not sure we ever pinned down why the inverse correlation has held. While I haven't actually looked, I doubt it held in earlier periods. For example, it seems to me that the dollar strengthened in the late 90s, along with the market. But of course my memory may be playing tricks on me. Anyone have ideas about this? EDIT: Just read this in Briefing's recap: A weak dollar benefits the economy as it boosts exports, and investors are trading stocks based on the moves in the currency. I'm not sure that accounts for all of it, but it is likely one aspect.